Refugees Welcome, Golden Dawn Scum Are Not - this design is free to download and use.

The day after  a meeting held by seniors members of Greece' neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party on the island of Chios, the Souda refugee camp was attacked by right wing extremists who throw firebombs boulders down upon the tents were refugees are housed. The meeting was also attended by MPs with Belgium's far right Vlaams Belang party.

4-5000 march to mark the first anniversary of the murder of Greek rapper Killah P (Pavlos Fyssas) by Golden Dawn supporters

This march in the northern Greek city of Thessaloniki was one of many to remember the murder one year ago of rapper KillahP (Pavlos Fyssas) by the supporters of Greece's neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party in the city of Patras.

Greek 2014 election results - a post mortem

First of all, let's get the apologies out of the way. In the run up to the Greek EU and local elections I predicted that the results might bring about major changes in the Greek political scene, even perhaps national elections. Nothing of the sort happened, the coalition remains in power as do the leaders of both New Democracy and PASOK. So how did I get it so wrong?

I had assumed that the weakest link in this particular chain would be the PASOK vote and that a dire poll result for them would signal the end of deputy PM and party leader Evangelos Venizelos. Venizelos, himself had publicly announced in the weeks leading up to the elections that anything less than a 10% share of the vote for his party would destabilise the coalition, hinting that the party might withdraw form power. The fact that PASOK hasn't polled as high as 10% for years seemed to reinforce the impression that changes were on their way.

Throughout the months prior to last Sunday's vote Greek opinion polls consistently underestimated the PASOK vote, most putting it between 5-7% (they received 8% in the EU vote) and since pollsters have historically always been more lenient towards parties in power I, and many others assumed that the final tally could even be lower. It was a sentiment further strengthened by PASOK's dire showing in the first round of the Athens and Thessaloniki municipal and city elections.

Also the fact that PASOK made almost no effort to advertise or campaign during the elections and even went as far as changing their name to Olive Tree (Elia) just added to the impression of a political organisation on the verge of collapse. Unlike 2009, there were none of the mass public rallies that used to, until recently, be the hallmark of Greek campaigning.

With New Democracy the issue was never one of collapse but rather how wide the gap would be between them and SYRIZA, by May even the most pro-govt pollsters could no longer hide the fact SYRIZA was pulling ahead, the question was by how much. Poll figures which were notoriously inaccurate  in 2012 had to be taken with a pinch of salt. The dream result for SYRIZA would have been one in which their share equalled or exceeded the combined vote of the coalition parties. Then, opposition leader Alexis Tsipras could claim that the government no longer had a popular mandate and therefore demand national elections. In the end neither happened.



New democracy lost by less than 4% and so prime minister Antonis Samaras could sell the defeat as the inevitable price of imposing difficult, but necessary reforms mid-term. Venizelos could argue that the results showed that the fall in popularity PASOK has suffered since the start of the crisis has been halted, and even reversed. In both cases the party base could be mollified with the idea that while not great the outcome could have been far worse.

So business as usual? No, I said that these elections marked the end of an era and that still remains true as the political landscape today is radically different form the one in place during the last European parliamentary elections in 2009. Then both PASOK and New Democracy were unassailable electorally, able to attract tens of thousands to their public rallies. Giorgos Papandreou and then prime minister Kostas Karamanlis could speak in public and mingle with party supporters would give them the kind of reception usually reserved for teen idols such as Justin Bieber. Between them the two parties garnered 70% of the vote and sent 16 out Greece's 22 MEPs to Strasburg. In 2014 most public rallies were marked by small turnouts and extremely tight security measures, the coalition's share of the vote had dropped to 31% and just 8 MEPs.

PASOK has lost much of its clout in the cities, where previously it had been entrenched, replaced by SYRIZA mayors and councilors. On the other hand the Golden Dawn vote  remained high and has weakened New Democracy, despite almost entirely negative press and a legal crackdown on its leadership. Even with no positive TV exposure, the antipathy many conservative voters feel towards the present government outweighed misgivings over Golden Dawn's true identity. Nor was this move right limited to those neighbourhoods hit hardest by job cuts, even in the upscale central district of Kolonaki, Athens, home to many foreign embassies Golden Dawn polled 13.7%.

With popular support at an all time low and a yet more austerity measures set to be imposed the Greek government's slim majority is coming under ever greater pressure, especially as despite all claims to the contrary the real economy is not improving, unemployment refuses to drop from record highs , trade deficit is climbing and the debt continues to balloon in size. While the national leadership may be congratulating themselves on retaining power, the wild last-minute assurances of vast numbers of new jobs and more foreign investments will come to haunt them in future clashes with the opposition who will seize upon such broken promises that the current political elite cannot be trusted.

Nor can such anger be put down as simply a local protest, the elections results across the EU have shown that problems austerity is creating has created a groundswell of resentment against not only national elites but also those operating in Brussels.

Greek Elections: Round One

With the first round of Greece's city and municipal elections over the government coalition parties and the opposition have being trying to persuade the public that they were the winners in yesterday's vote. However, unlike parliamentary or EU elections the conclusions that can be drawn are not so clear cut for a number of reasons.

First and foremost, local election results in Greece, as in the rest of the world are just as likely to be influenced by local issues such as rubbish collection, state of the roads etc. as they are by the party affiliations of the candidate. This mean clear comparisons between these results and national ones cannot be made so easily, for example in Greece's two largest cities, Athens and Thessaloniki independent candidates came first, but in Crete PASOK retained its lead in the municipal elections and conservatives aligned with New Democracy did very well in Macedonia.

Also the fact that many candidates stood as independents or as members of parties that have no clear affiliation with the national ones also makes more general conclusions difficult to make. While in the big urban areas the candidates favoured by the parties are easy to pick out, in other regions the connection, if any between local political groups and candidates and the national parties is less clear to many voters.

Finally, only one fifth of the contested positions have been decided, the rest will have to wait for the second round next Sunday.

The Guardian talked about an anti-austerity backlash and In Athens and Thessaloniki mayoral elections the candidates supported by New Democracy and PASOK fared badly, though how much of that was due to anti-government sentiment and how much was due to less than stellar contenders is hard to say.

However, all these caveats aside a picture does seem to be emerging that confirms recent opinion polls that SYRIZA is gaining strength and that candidates identified with parties that make up the coalition government. are losing support. The fact that the party has made gains in the urban areas is more proof that its is no longer just a raggedy band of protesters and stands poised to replace PASOK as the main opposition party on a permanent basis. Once PASOK loses its stronghold in local government then its ability to keep intact a party machine that depends more on patron client relations than it does on ideology is severely compromised.

New Democracy's position also seems to be under threat, not only from SYRIZA on the Left but Golden Dawn on the right. Despite the fact that much of leadership is behind bars facing criminal investigation, the neo -Nazi party's level of support was back to 2012 levels. Even in chic upmarket neighbourhoods such as Kolonaki in central Athens, they won 13.7% of the vote, in other poorer districts it topped 20%.

The prime minister's campaign strategy of pulling to the Right and co-opting the rhetoric and policies of Golden Dawn seems not to be paying off. Nor has the anti-Golden Dawn media coverage in the pro-government press seemed to have driven away voters.

The May 25th EU parliamentary vote will give a clearer picture of where Greece's parties stand in the eyes of the electorate when the contenders will be standing on party tickets for the 22 MEP seats. In 2009 PASOK and New Democracy won 15 of those, but this time around they'll be lucky to get half that number and there is a good chance that PASOK will get just one seat.

Already SYRIZA is promoting the idea that the EU vote is a referendum on austerity itself and that a poor showing by the government will mark the end of its popular mandate and so be the reason to hold new national parliamentary elections. On the other hand both prime minister Antonis Samaras and deputy prime minister, Evangelos Venizelos are calling upon supporters to vote for the coalition in the name of stability and so as to save a fledgling economic recovery.

My prediction for next week's EU vote is;

1 SYRIZA 20-25%
2 New Democracy 18-23%
3 Golden Dawn 8-10%
4 Potami (River)  6-8%
5 KKE (Greek Communist Party) 4-5% and Olive Tree (PASOK) 4-6%

Where Have All The Flags Gone? The End of Days For Greece's Post - Junta Political Order.

At least till recently Greek election campaigns have been vibrant. rambunctious affairs, marked by mass public rallies, a barrage of ads on TV and the kind of political theatre long since extinguished in Northern Europe. Yet this year shows that whilst Greece may be steeped in tradition, it has also a long history of radical change and re-adjustment, a legacy of its traumatic modern history which has seen the small Balkan nation undergo invasion, civil war, famine and spectacular economic growth and decline.

In contrast to 2009's hard fought EU election campaign, the current run up to the dual local and EU parliamentary votes on 18th and 25th May have been so low key as to be practically invisible. Gone are the constant TV ads and posters on every major thoroughfare. gone are the large scale public rallies that used to be the trade mark of both New Democracy and PASOK parties.

So why the reticence on the part of a political caste whose one guiding principle is to stay both in power and the public eye? Partly, it is financial, New Democracy and PASOK are bankrupt in all but name, owing between them 250 millions euros to the banks and as their State funding is linked to electoral prowess their steep decline in support means they have little chance of returning to solvency. State allocation for campaign spending (of which PASOK and New Democracy got the lion's share) which reached 65 million Euros in 2010 has now been reduced to 7 million and with so little cash the lavish outlays that allowed Greece's two largest parties to outspend on a massive scale their political rivals has disappeared.

Partly, the anemic campaign is for reasons of self - defence. Ruling politicians are so detested by many of their voters that any kind of large public gathering is next to impossible unless  the image politicians want to project  is one of anger and discontent. Brave is the government minister who'd appear in public unless in front of a crowd of heavily vetted party loyalists. Whilst opposition parties such as SYRIZA and KKE (Greek Communist Party) will be holding outdoor rallies neither the prime minister nor deputy PM dare risk such a move, fearful that they'd be faced with a sea of hostile faces live on TV.



Case in point has been the election campaign of PASOK leader and deputy prime minister, Evangelos Venizelos. Appearances so far have so been held behind closed doors in meetings held for hard core party cadres rather than rank and file supporters. In each case demonstrations by sacked public sector employees and other disgruntled groups means that such events are marked by high levels of security, further heightening the image of a political elite cut off from the rest of the nation.

For the prime minister's New Democracy's conservative party the picture, whilst not pretty, is nowhere near as dire as that of PASOK but they too are saddled with massive debt load which has severely curtailed their spending. Though much of the mainstream media continues to support them,  a serious decline in TV ratings for the most partisan pro-austerity channels and the collapse in newspaper readership has lessened their ability to set the political agenda.

While the polls show wildly divergent predictions for the results, two things can be widely agreed upon; firstly, that even the support of the country's oligarchs may not be enough to avert SYRIZA becoming the largest party in EU elections (local election results are less easy to use as an indicator for national party support as candidates are forbidden by the constitution to run under national party tickets,). And secondly PASOK will be wiped out, lucky if it elects even one euro MP. A long, inglorious fall from the time it dominated post Junta politics in the 1980's and 90's.

If the results prove particularly disappointing for government coalition partners then there is most likely to be quick and fundamental changes in the party leaderships as different groups vie for power and seek to avoid loss in support.



Venizelos has already warned that anything less than 10%  share of the vote for PASOK Now renamed Olive Tree) will threaten government stability. A strange statement given that the party has not polled as high as 10 percent in years. Nearly all polls show that likely their share will be  be between 3 and 7 percent and that even their recent name change will do little to avert the inevitable

The prime minister is faced with a similar dilemma as a severe defeat at the polls will weaken his position and give ammunition to internal opponents already unhappy with his promotion of far right elements to top party and government posts. Many are suspicious that once again Samaras will lead New Democracy to electoral defeat as he did in the mid 90's when he left the party to set up Political Spring, an act many Karamanlis loyalists still see as an act of betrayal.

The fact that the Greek supreme court has ruled that Golden Dawn can run for elections despite the fact that many of its MPs are facing criminal charges. Must give New Democracy even more reason to fear defeat as both parties have been actively cultivating far right polices in the hope of winning ultra-conservative voters. Problem is that unlike Golden Dawn, the prime minister's long series of u-turns and policy flip flops have disillusioned many on the Right.



Golden Dawn may have been vilified by both local and foreign press for its racist activities,  but there are still many Greeks who will use the party as a vehicle for their anger at the existing political set-up, which is widely perceived as both corrupt and out of touch. Even the media campaign that followed the fatal stabbing of activist rapper Pavloss Fyssas by Golden Dawn members has ended up backfiring as the pro-government stations fall victim to their desire to  please political goals of their owners at the expense of credibility.

The arrival of the Potami - River party formed by former journalist Stavros Theodorakis promises to make firm predictions over the exact result even more difficult. Theodorakis recently set up the party as  non-political alternative to the traditional ones of Left and Right. Initially polls showed support as high as 15% but since then these numbers have dropped significantly especially as questions of how the party has been financed remain unclear and the fact that he was till recently a senior reporter in the pro-government MEGA channel.

However, whatever happens the political landscape forged in the aftermath of the Regime of the Colonels in the 70's is now almost at an end; PASOK, the child of left wing firebrand Andreas Papandreou is all but spent as a major political force, a victim of its adherence to hated austerity policies.



Their eternal rival, New Democracy, also created in the ashes of the Junta is riddled with dissent and after six years of grinding economic decline caused by austerity. Even among the party's core demographics the cuts in pensions, endless list of taxes on property and spending cuts have taken their toll with levels of support now at less than half those of pre-crisis elections.

Finally, next Sunday's vote also marks the death knell for the family dynasties that dominated so much of public life in modern Greece, the latest generation of Karamanlises Mitsotakises and Papandreous both took the reins of power riding to victory on name recognition and achievements of their father's and grandfathers, only to be found wanting as the crisis upturned so many of Greece's political shibboleths.

Konstantinos Karamanlis (nephew of New Democracy founder Kostas Mitsotakis and nephew of previous prime minister Konstantinos Karamanlis) won two terms in office but left behind a heavily indebted economy and a party image battered by string of corruption and influence peddling  scandals.

Similarly, Giorgos Papandreou's (son and grandson of previous Greek prime ministers) time at the helm was no less disastrous than his equally privileged predecessor, faced with an unprecedented economic downturn his vacillation turned a major setback into a full-blown meltdown, eventually leading to him being deposed in a "palace" coup by Evangelos Venizelos when Papandreou threatened the EU and IMF with a referendum over austerity.

Though neither will be missed by most voters, like so many failed leaders of the past they hang on like Banquo's ghost ever ready for a call from the Greece's voters to come back and save the nation. It's a call they are unlikely to receive.

Angie Through The Looking Glass - Merkel visits Athens

Greek recovery is back. The news story that refuses to die no matter how many times the predictions are debunked.

Photo I took during Merkel's 2012 visit to Athens.

Once again the world's press and a large chunk of the nation's police force descended upon Athens in anticipation of the visit by German chancellor, Angela Merkel to beleaguered Greek prime minister, Antonis Samaras.

Bathing in glow of German praise for his government's austerity policies and the a successful five - year bond auction the fragile coalition government and its supporters in the the media were certain that this marked the end of a six-year economic downturn that has not been seen in a developed European country at peace since the Great Depression. Nor was such optimism limited to local reporters and analysts, foreign outlets such as the BBC also waxed lyrically that Greece had finally turned a corner.



Alas, as with so many similar predictions made in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013, the facts, on closer examination do not bear out the basic assumption that a successful bond sale signals growing confidence in Greek economic performance and hence represents the end of the downturn in the real economy. Unemployment still remains high at 26.7% and 20% of those in employment remain unpaid for at least three months, often for much longer. Exports have dropped and GDP is still more than 25% less than it was in 2008. The government is mired in scandal over its connection with Golden Dawn and during the last austerity vote saw it's parliamentary majority drop to just one MP in the 300 seat house.

As if to underline the growing sense of unease, a massive car bomb went off outside the Bank of Greece building in central Athens a day ahead of Merkel's visit. Although police were quick to claim it was probably the work of anarchists, the sophistication and scale of the attack is completely unlike the kinds of attack such groups usually carry out. As yet no individual or group has claimed responsibility.

Yet none of this could puncture the joint Hellenic-German display of  mutual appreciation on display, and to make sure that that would remain so 5000 police officers were on duty to enforce a ban on any form of demonstration in the centre of the Greek capital. Strange that a leader who compared the NSA with the East German secret service (Stasi) for tapping her phone had nothing to say with a display of state strength that Erich Honenker would have gladly approved of.

In keeping with the authoritarian spirit of the day, the Greek state run press Agency APA doctored the chancellor's speech, deleting all reference to austerity in their translation which was released to the local press. Unnecessary given that both state and private broadcasters (which are owned by country's oligarchs with close ties with the ruling parties) went to extraordinary lengths to make sure the prime minister's version of events got as wide and uncritical a hearing as possible.

On  the other hand reactions to Merkel's appearance in Athens on Twitter were almost universally negative, with many comparing it to the visit of a monarch to a newly acquired colony and seething at the revoking of basic civil rights for the duration. Abroad, financial analysts were less giddy with excitement over possibilities of a Greek recovery given that fact that none of the economic fundamentals which are crushing development have changed.

So what was the point? Economically almost none, but politically the return of Greece to the money markets is being sold as a indication that the austerity policies which have brought many European economies to their knees is finally paying off. This is a message we are going to be hearing repeatedly over the next few weeks as EU countries go the poll to vote in European parliamentary elections in May and while this media narrative may play well in Germany throughout the rest of Europe the response could be more muted.

Usually, EU elections are marked by indifference both among the public and the media, but given the growing unpopularity of parties implementing austerity and the rise of the far Right this year's vote is the nearest thing the continent will have to a referendum on the dominant austerity narrative. In the UK, the Conservative/Liberal coalition government is nervously facing the prospect of a spike in UKIP support at their expense. Hollande's position in France would also be seriously weakened if he has a repeat of the debacle his party suffered in the recent local elections.

As well as EU vote Greece will also have local elections in May and the reality is that it will mark the end of a political era with PASOK being ousted from power in many districts, a fall from political grace that has seen its share of the vote drop from 43% in 2009 to around 4%, if recent polls are to be believed. That will probably signal the downfall of deputy PM and PASOK  leader Evangelos Venizelos's time as party leader, even his blustering, bullishness will not be able to keep in check anger at how the party has been destroyed by its leadership's commitment to austerity policies.

Similarly, the prime minister's New Democracy party is also growing restless, unhappy with the coterie of far right advisors and politicians that surround the leader, also worried that they too, may eventually suffer the same fate as PASOK as their power is challenged by SYRIZA on the left and Golden Dawn of the right. A poor showing in May elections may also trigger a challenged to Samaras's leadership.

This is why the visit of Angela Merkel and the bond auction was so vital to a political leadership, desperate to convince the public that despite all the evidence to the contrary the Greek economy is on the right track. Whether this will be transformed in votes in the polls is another matter.Putting aside the growing anti-German sentiment in Greece, the statistics and indicators being used by politicians and media to make the case for recovery are, at best tangential to the everyday struggle for survival many Greeks face. Spreads, yields, and bonds will not make finding a job any easier, reduce skyrocketing tax bills or stop the flood of young people leaving the country.

All The Prime Minister's Men - Top aide to Antonis Samaras reveals his close ties with Golden Dawn

Perhaps one of the worst kept secrets in Greek political life came to light when Golden Dawn MP Ilias Kasadiaris released a video (transcript in English here) which revealed just how close the party was to Takis Baltakos, cabinet secretary to both the prime minister, Antonis Samaras and Deputy PM, Evangelos Venizelos. The tone and content of the conversation underlined what many had suspected that instead of being stalwart foes, the ruling New Democracy party and the avowed political outsiders Golden Dawn party were in fact working closely together.



This is doubly embarrassing for the prime minister as it not only undermines New Democracy's policy of presenting itself as a moderate bulwark against extremism on both the Left and the Right (the so-called Theory of the Two Extremes) but also shows just how little independence the Greek judiciary has in the country's political system. According to Samaras's right hand man, the prosecutions of senior Golden Dawn figures and the imprisonment of its MPs was based on the threat they posed to New Democracy's poll share and not because of their string of violent attacks on immigrants and political opponents.

Despite the fact that the neo-Nazi party had racked up an impressive record of violent racist assaults for years prior to 2013's clamp down the real trigger was, according to the secretly recorded video, their rise to 14% in the polls. Taking advantage of the murder of rapper, Pavlos Fyssas by Golden Dawn members in the port city of Piraeus, Greek police arrested top members of the party and charged them with being part of a criminal conspiracy.According to the transcript, this decision was not based on evidence linking local party supporters involved with the national leadership but rather political pressure brought to bear on judges involved..



Before that, however the Greek prime minister was quite happy to play a double game, on the one hand condemning Golden Dawn as a threat to democracy (especially when abroad) but on the other using their language and ideas to win back conservative voters with anti-immigrant policies taken straight from the pages of the Golden Dawn playbook. Also, when necessary using the threat of an alliance with the party to rein in Democratic Left, the junior party in Greece's (then) three-party coalition government when it threatened to vote against the government over the closure of the state broadcaster, ERT,.

Given Samaras's past as a ultra-nationalist in the in 1990's and the fact that he has surrounded himself with a coterie of far right politicians that this group has close ties with Golden Dawn should come as no real surprise. The ideological overlap between the clique that forms the heart of New Democracy's leadership and the Europe's most far right parliamentary party is much greater than either would like to admit (as least in public).

So, it seems the love that dare not speak its name has become a matter of public record as Greece's creaking coalition govt hangs on by a thread with a majority of one following the expulsion from PASOK of a senior MP who voted again the latest round of austerity laws imposed by Athens's creditors.

In May Greece goes to the polls to vote in European parliamentary, local and if one cabinet minister is to be believed national elections that promise to recast a political landscape that was formed in the 70's. The once powerful PASOK party is likely to be trounced, lucky to elect even one Euro MP whilst its last remaining stronghold in local government will be severely weakened by a drop of 90% in popularity since 2009.



For New Democracy the other traditional party of power the fall has been less crushing but still severe enough to possibly warrant a challenge to the leadership by a party base unwilling to follow PASOK's example and march themselves off into political oblivion.

Now the prime minister's problem is how to manage the decline and turn defeat at the hands of the main opposition party, SYRIZA into a minor victory. If the gap between the two in polls is a matter of a few points Samaras may be able to convince the party base that it was the necessary price to push through unpopular, but much needed policies. If, however, the gap is larger and conservative voters pick Golden Dawn in sufficiently large numbers then Samaras's position will be untenable, leading to a fierce scramble for the leadership within the party and the almost certain end of the unholy alliance between PASOK and New Democracy so putting an end to the coalition government that has governed Greece since 2012. That in turns means new round of national elections in which none of the old political paradigms will apply anymore.

Whilst this is bound to create uncertainty, not least within financial markets, it will signal the end of a era of graft, clientalism and pork barrel politics in which both PASOK and New Democracy officials from the top to the very bottom treated the State as their own private fiefdom and turned a blind eye to the actions of  handful of extremely rich men who used their political connections to wield enormous, and often unseen influence over the economy and lives of millions of Greek citizens.

No More lies - Greece

No More lies - Greece, a photo by Teacher Dude's BBQ on Flickr.

With the crisis dragging on in Greece, voters are growing ever more angry at the lies and spin the government coalition parties employ to distract from their corruption, incompetence and lack of vision for the future.

In May the country will vote in both local authority and European parliamentary elections and if current opinion polls prove correct, then this mark that end of the monopoly on power the nominally socialist PASOK and far right New Democracy parties have held since the late 70's.

PASOK in particular, is likely to hardest hit with possibility that its share of the vote will be as low as 4%, a startling decline from the 44% it won in the 2009 general elections. New Democracy's base is also shrinking as people,sick of austerity and endless finance scandals turn their back on them, many changing allegiance to the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party .

The position of the two main parties is not helped by the fact that between them they have 270 million euros in non-performing loans, which have been serviced since January 2013, making them technically bankrupt.

With the prime minister announcing new taxes on food, property and cigarettes, the chances that his New democracy party will fall from second place to third place behind SYRIZA and Golden Dawn should not be ruled out.

Whatever the final tally is poor results in May's elections will further increase pressure by party supporters and backbench MPs on PM Antonis Samaras and deputy PM Evangelos Venizelos to step down, so opening the way to more instability and the possibility of new national elections in the summer.

Anti-fascist demo in Greece

Anti-fascist demo in Greece, a photo by Teacher Dude's BBQ on Flickr.

Protesters defied police ban and the possibility of a six month jail sentence to demonstrate against Golden Dawn in the norther port city of Thessaloniki.

The Theory Of The Two Extremes - Greek government's attempt to rein in opposition

One of the side effects of austerity measures in Greece has been the spectacular rise of the neo-nazi party, Golden Dawn (Chrysi Aygi, In Greek) and in an attempt to combat its growing influence in the polls the Greek prime minister, Antonis Samaras has been promoting the Theory of the Two Extremes, the idea that the murderous violence on the far right is equivalent to protests on the left over economic reforms. Put crudely, as it often is in the country's highly partisan press, opposition, both on the left and right represent a threat to political and economic stability and so the current coalition government made up of former political foes, New Democracy and PASOK are able to present themselves a solid guarantee against chaos.

This week the prime minister took the opportunity to share the theory with a foreign audience whilst taking part in a Q & A session at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington on Tuesday when he said that while Golden Dawn was at one extreme in Greek politics, those opposed to Athens's membership of NATO and the European Union occupied the other.

The indirect reference to Greece's Communist Party (known as KKE) and the staunchly anti-capitalist ANTARSYA party provoked an immediate and fierce response from commentators on the Left who accused Samaras of fanning the flames of political conflict in order to scare voters back to New Democracy which has seen its importance in Greek public life wane over the last four years as opposition parties have nibbled away at its disgruntled party base.

If this is, indeed the aim of the government then the move has yet to bear fruit according to the latest VPRC opinion polls which show that little of Golden Dawn's drop in popularity has been translated into support for New Democracy who remain in second place, a 1-2 percentage points behind SYRIZA.

Back at home Greek government spokesman, Simos Kedikoglou also tried tying the excesses of Golden Dawn to the the main opposition party, this time for domestics consumption claiming that the SYRIZA leader, Alexis Tsipras was the best advocate Golden Dawn and its leader could ask for after Tsipras questioned the legal basis of the rushed government crackdown on Golden Dawn's political leadership.

In other countries in Europe, those with a less troubled history claims that the government was fighting to save the nation from political extremism would gain little traction, but memories of Greece's brutal civil war in the 40's which pitted Left against Right for four bloody years and the Regime of the Colonels which brought a far right military dictatorship to power from 1967 till 1974 means that fears of extreme political conflict are a living part of the collective political narrative, not to mention the stuff of many a family history.

However, with Golden Dawn facing a raft of serious criminal charges, including several counts of murder and attempted murder the idea that this band of thuggish racists can be compared with Communist Party trade unionists protesting job losses or SYRIZA organised rallies over school closures has become even more absurd.

Golden Dawn arrests mark sea change in Greek politics.

Striking teachers carry picture of murdered singer, Pavlos Fyssas.

September is usually the time of year when Greek politics shrug off its summer stupor and the country's parties vie with each other to set the political agenda for the coming winter. Yet this year the speed at which developments have unfolded is unprecedented and the arrest yesterday of the leader of the neo-nazi (let's not be coy about using the term) Golden Dawn party leader along with many of their MPs and supporters is just part of a string of developments which are sending shockwaves through Greek political life.

Suddenly, Greece's mainstream media which has often been indifferent to Golden Dawn violence over the past few years is full of stories concerning murders, money laundering etc allegedly carried out in the name of the movement. In fact all those widely documented stories they were so unwilling to report till the Greek government decided to clamp down on the far right this weekend.

The same TV stations and newspapers that till recently were happy to host Golden Dawn politicians have, as if by magic, turned into die-hard defenders of democracy and the sworn enemy of those who threaten its sacred institutions. In a similar vein, these media organisations have run stories concerning secret armies of Golden Dawn cadres trained by Greek special forces, calls for a coup by army reservists and dark tales of infiltration in the military and the police force.

Such stories have been seized upon by foreign correspondents eager for a juicy headline and not too worried by the fact that many of these plots have little in the way of hard evidence to back them up other than anonymous sources quoted in Greece's less than reliable newspapers. At times the furour concerning the influence of Golden Dawn in Greek public life reads like an extract from Evelyn Waugh's satirical novel about journalism, Scoop in which wild rumour is magically transformed into informed analysis by the press.

However, the killing of hip-hop singer and left-wing activist, Pavlos Fyssas (known as Killah P) set off a chain of events that has seen a sea change in Greek public life. Before it, Golden Dawn was cresting a political wave of discontent over austerity and exploiting for all its worth the public's disgust with the existing political establishment. Polls showed its share of  the vote rising and some even predicted that it would go from being the third to the second party in next year's local elections. The lead analyst at the pro-government Skai TV even raised the possibility of a New Democracy - Golden Dawn alliance, saying a similar partnership had been cemented in Norway.

Now all of that is changing, instead of Golden Dawn being invited into government they're now behind bars, facing a raft of serious criminal charges, including that of being a criminal organisation. Opinion polls show a significant drop in support though it should be noted that they still remain the third most popular party a sign that while down Golden Dawn cannot be dismissed just yet.

It seems that the country's political leadership has decided to take the political gamble of clipping Golden Dawn's wings and even hope to secure their right flank by neutralising them politically. They are hoping that such a move will woo disgruntled voters back to the New Democracy/PASOK party fold and allow the coalition to portray itself as the saviour of Greek democracy both at home and abroad.

For domestic audiences the arrests are being used as evidence that traditional parties of government are combatting political extremism and so are a force for stability in difficult times. For those abroad the rise and fall of Golden Dawn can be used to force concessions in Europe in the next round of talks over the latest austerity measures. "Look," they say "if you insist on yet more cuts and firings you'll enable those extremists who wish to destabilise Greece".

Yet this is still a major political risk for prime minister Antonis Samaras. Golden Dawn MPs have threatened to resign en masse which would lead to 18 by-elections and so threaten the government's slim two seat majority. Other commentators are proposing that in such a situation Samaras would have no other choice but to call for general elections. Given the fact that Samaras was happy to bring down the PASOK led government last year just months after it was elected shows that such a possibility does not daunt the man. Indeed, given Samaras's role in bringing down the New Democracy administration in the 1990's, it would par for the course.

While Greek political establishment and its supporters in the mainstream media congratulate themselves on dealing with the threat to public order posed by Golden Dawn others wonder why an organisation facing multiple charges of murder and a much longer  list of attempted murders and other acts of violence was allowed to get away with it for so long. Where have the police and judiciary been while for years gangs of thugs terrorised people on the streets of Greek cities? 

If nothing else the clamp down reveals clearly the lack of distance between Greece's justice system and political parties in power. Only when the political leadership decided that Golden Dawn had gone too far did the police intervene decisively, despite a mountain of evidence collected by Greek and foreign activists over the last four years. 

However, the willingness to overlook racism and violence is not limited to Greece's police officers. On the contrary, both PASOK and New Democracy have been more than willing to adopt Golden Dawn style positions on immigration in order to win back votes by proving that they are cracking down. It is this, along with the crushing effects of austerity that have provided Golden Dawn with so much impetus. The ruling parties have been happy to legitimise racism by making it government policy and so helped turn Golden Dawn from a bunch of nazi-junta nostalgists out on the wilder fringes of Greek political discourse into a part of mainstream public debate.

If the politicians had thought more about ethics rather than polls, if the police had just done their job rather than serve an ever changing political agenda and if both had treated violence against dark skinned people with the same seriousness as those with lighter complexions there would be several people alive today including Pavlos Fyssas, RIP.

Video - Anti-fascist rally in Thessaloniki, Greece.

Anti-fascist rallies in Thessaloniki, Greece. a video by Teacher Dude's BBQ on Flickr.

Anti-fascist rally this evening in Thessaloniki, Greece.

Anti-fascist rallies in Thessaloniki, Greece., a photo by Teacher Dude's BBQ on Flickr.

About 2-3000 people took part in the protest against Golden Dawn in Greece's second largest city.

Is a Golden Dawn role in government on the cards in Greece?

Last week the leading commentator at one of Greece's largest private TV stations raised the possibility of a political alliance between the ruling conservative New Democracy party and the Neonazis in Golden Dawn.

"Why shouldn't New Democracy co-operate with a serious Golden Dawn?" asked Babis Papadimitriou, the head of the staunchly pro-government Skai TV. The statement was prompted by the latest opinion polls that show the continued rise of Golden Dawn, now at 13-15% and the poor showing of the other partner in the Greek ruling coalition, PASOK, whose fall from electoral Grace has seen support plummet from 42% to 7- 8% within the space of four years.

Papadimitriou's remarks immediately provoked a storm of angry response from Greek Twittersphere and political commentators, many of whom believe that this is the first step in the process of "rehabilitating" Golden Dawn. Such was the reaction that Skai dedicated an entire hour the following day to giving Papadimitriou a chance to clarify his stance. His argument was that Golden Dawn, Greece's third most popular party now represent a large proportion of  the electorate and that a similar alliance between centre right and far right parties had already taken place in Norway.

At first glance such an alliance would contradict prime minister, Antonis Samaras's  policy of presenting himself and his party as a bulwark against the threat of rising extremism. The Policy of The Two Extremes as it has been termed involves the government and its supporters in the pro-government mass media painting both its opponents on the Left and Right as a dangerous challenge to political stability, harking back to the often chaotic politics that Greece lived through during the 20th century. With junior partner, the nominally left-wing PASOK party hemorrhaging votes, it's leader Evangelos venizelos has been more than willing to go along with this strategy in the hope of scaring back voters from SYRIZA.

The violence used and glorified by Golden Dawn is therefore equated with supposedly similar trends in SYRIZA and the Greek Communist Party (KKE). In such an equation, brutal attacks on immigrants, Nazi salutes and 1930's style Brown Shirt street fighting is considered the same as strike action or sit down protests. In such a world, New Democracy and PASOK can present themselves as a sane alternative to such political madness, a stabilising influence in difficult times.


The problem with this theory is that just does not reflect reality on the ground, no matter how much political and media spin is used. The rise in political influence and extremism on right has not be mirrored by 1930's style street tactics on the left. It is Golden Dawn MP's who have been charged (though not sent to convicted of) with a raft of offences ranging from assault to possession of illegal weapons. It is their supporters who have repeatedly been accused of endless list of attacks against immigrants and increasingly domestic political opponents.

As if to underline this just a day after Babis Papadimitriou talked of the possibility of  bringing Golden Dawn in to government, 50 of their supporters took part in a bloody attack on Greek communists who has putting up posters in the city of Perama which left nine of them in hospital.

On other hand the differences between Golden Dawn and New Democracy are fewer than they'd either would like to admit publically. The lurch to the right that PM, Antonis Samaras brought to his party has seen the rise to power of far right supporters, many refugees from the ultra-nationalist LAOS party which was all but wiped out in the last elections. In terms of immigration, for example, New Democracy's policies are little more than a more polished version of unvarnished racism of Golden Dawn.

Despite the political risks that both parties face forming an alliance, New Democracy, at least may not have any other choice. The party cannot rule on its own, having seen its share of the vote drop from 40+ % to 26-29% and it's current coalition partner PASOK is fading away, suffering a wane in political fortunes on par with that which struck the UK Liberal party in the 1920's.

Although die-hard supporters still maintain that PASOK leader, Evangelos Venizelos has a master plan to turn the situation around, the reality is that its decline is irrevocable and that any recovery that may take place is years in the future and almost certainly without the presence of Venizelos who has become personally identified with the decline in Greece's fortunes. The fact that a recent poll found that in one of Greece's largest electoral districts in Athens support for PASOK among younger voters was 0% just underlines the the scale of the problem.

Some commentators have argued that the government's demonisation of Golden Dawn rules out a coalition however, in true Orwellian fashion  New Democracy has changed policy stances on a number of occasions. Samaras positioned himself when in opposition as Greece's best hope to fight austerity and then once elected to promote himself as its most loyal defender. Yet one more u-turn in a long history of such moves would surprise few observers and given Samaras's own history as a semi-reconstructed ultra-nationalist an alliance with Golden Dawn would far more sense than one with his arch political rival, PASOK and its leadership.

What is in this for Golden Dawn is less clear since its entire existence is predicated upon its staunch opposition to the political establishment which it has painted as a hotbed of corruption and worse. They have made much of their anger with austerity, promoting themselves as agents of national resistance against a anti-Greek, internationally orientated elite who are betraying the homeland in order to hang onto power. To suddenly join up with New Democracy would risk them being consigned to the dustbin of history, suffering the same fate as far right LAOS party who made the same transition and paid the price for it at the polls.

On the other hand the siren call of access to the State and all the power and privileges that go with it has turned many a head in Greece's turbulent political past. With government position comes the ability to reward followers with public contracts and civil service jobs, a potent recruiting tool in difficult times. More importantly, a role in government brings legitimacy especially in the eyes of Greece's oligarch owned mainstream media who would quickly forget any qualms they once harboured about hosting violent Nazi style idealogues.

None of this is likely to happen soon unless the tensions that underlay the government coalition become untenable and since neither side is looking to go to the polls before it is absolutely necessary that seems unlikely. However, the fact that pro-New Democracy media is mooting the idea of a future alliance between Golden Dawn and New Democracy means that the prospect is being discussed and the waters tested.

Faced with the possibility of a future government lead by SYRIZA Greece's economic and political establishment would be more than willing to hold its nose and embrace a Neonazi party rather than see Greece clash with creditors over the terms of the bailout deal and the attendant risk of exit from the Eurozone.
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*Note. This post was written just days before a man identified as a Golden Dawn member was accused of stabbing to death singer and left-wing activist Pavlos Fyssas.

Despite crisis good times still roll for Greek MPs

Antonis Samaras is currently doing the rounds in Europe, attempting to persuade fellow EU leaders that Greece needs two more years to fulfil the obligations required to receive the country's next installment of cash to avoid bankruptcy. Samaras has even personally guaranteed that Germany will be repaid in full, though how intends to do this is another matter, unless there is a secret coda in Steve Job's will that no one has been aware of till now.

On the other hand The PM's attempt to prove the Greece has changed and become a more fiscally responsible country have been undermined by even high ranking members of his own government, who upon being elected to parliament seemingly appointed to state jobs just about every member of their extended family not in jail or the grave. Case in point being New Democracy heavy weight, Vyron Polydoras, who secured a government job for his daughter after Greece's first national elections in May. Polydoras was also involved in a scandal during the Karamanlis administration after he used his position as minister for public order to have them transferred to his own offices.

However, this misuse of parliamentary privilege is not limited to New Democracy as such moves have been made PASOK, Independent Greeks and Golden Dawn MPs, with a total of 150 extra employees being added to the public payroll at a cost of nearly 3,000,000 euros annually.

At first sight such nepotism and pork barrel politics would seem to give fodder to Greece's foes in Europe who argue that Athens refuses top take reforms of its bloated state sector seriously. However, such accusations ignore the fact that these abuses are the preserve of the those at the top of Greece's deeply corrupt political system. For ordinary Greeks, the cuts in spending are very real indeed. A telling example is that while 187,000 people registered as jobless receive unemployment benefit (usually less than 400 euros a month), 734,000 do not. Hardly evidence of profligate welfare spending and for those who remain unemployed for more than 12 months there is little in the way of financial assistance form the State.


The irony of the situation is that during Greece's deeply divisive dual elections in summer much of the European political leadership and the financial establishment across the world exerted as much influence as it could muster to shore up support for New Democracy and Antonis Samaras, and in doing so helped maintain the corrupt political empires that helped Greece get so deeply into debt in the first place. 

End of an era in Greek politics

With the dust settling on yesterday's election results only one thing is certain in Greece; the previous political era is now officially over. Both the conservative New Democracy and left wing PASOK parties who've dominated the stage for more than a generation received a drubbing at the polls. Even though New Democracy emerged as the largest party, it garnered just 18.89% (at time of writing), just over half its 2009 election share. PASOK, lead by Evengelos Venizelos suffered an even more crushing reversal, and is left with just 41 seats, down 129 from 2009.

Other losers included the far right LAOS party and conservative Democratic Alliance who both failed to reach the 3% threshold for parliamentary representation. Also the plethora of splinter groups/parties set up by expelled PASOK and New Democracy MPs failed to make any headway, with the sole exception of the hard right Independent Greeks lead by Panos Kammenos which won 33 seats.

On the other the Radical Left Coalition (SYRIZA) came second in the polls, just a few percentage points behind New Democracy and gained 51 seats,and would be just 7 behind the conservative if it were not for the electoral rule that awards an extra 50 seats to the party with the most votes. The newly minted Democratic Left also entered parliament for the first time with 19 seats, having attracted much of its support from dissatisfied PASOK voters.

However, the official communist party KKE proved to have a disappointing night, increasing its share of the vote by less than 1%, a reflection that its old style campaign failed to reach out and convince few new voters.

The more worrying development was the rise of the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party who are set to have 21 seats in parliament. The extremist group which has been linked numerous acts of violence against immigrants and political opponents are not simply a far right formation but rather a party that believes fervently in many of the core tenants of national socialism and Hitlerite ideology. Their ascent to power allows them a place in the political mainstream and assures them airtime on TV and radio from which they can promote a platform of racial hatred and political intolerance.

With the old political order in tatters and a parliament fractured so deeply along deeply held ideological lines forming a  new government will be difficult. In the immediate aftermath of the vote many party leaders rushed to deny that they'd form alliances with others. For example KKE leader Aleka Papariga came out against an alliance with SYRIZA while Kammenos ruled out possible partnership with New Democracy. On the other hand ND leader Samaras and PASOK leader Venizelos are reaching out to other political forces in the hope of creating a viable block.

What is clear is that neither the left nor the right are in a position to form a majority government of their own, and that means either new elections immediately or a fractious coalition unlikely to survive the backlash generated by the latest round of job cuts and tax hikes which are likely to the poorest hardest. In that case new elections during the summer seems unavoidable.

The irony is that the unbending demands of the troika (IMF, EU and ECB) has created exactly the situation they were most anxious to avoid, one in which Greece is unable or unwilling to implement the austerity measures that are part of the next "bailout: plan.

In Greek elections everyone's a winner

Election night - Thessaloniki, Greece, originally uploaded by Teacher Dude's BBQ.

After weeks of campaigning, the first round of the Greek local elections is over and it seems the world's money markets are breathing a sigh of relief that the ruling PASOK government has decided not to hold early national elections. Normally, Wall Street, The City and the Frankfurt DAX pay little attention to the small time Hellenic politics but this time prime minister Giorgos Papandreou embarked on a game of high stakes poker and repeatedly declared that a crushing defeat for his party on Sunday would mean a new round of parliamentary elections, perhaps as soon as December. The election campaign quickly transformed from being a debate on mundane local issues such as how often garbage get collected and assumed the dimensions of a referendum on how the Greek government was dealing with its dire financial crisis.

The news, which was quickly labelled political blackmail by his political opponents sent the cost of Greek government borrowing on the world's financial markets through the roof with CDS's topping 900 points. A reaction that reinforced Papandreou's claim that if voters did not support PASOK candidates the alternative would be financial disaster and political chaos.

Whether the high stakes bluff really prevented an all out electoral rout for PASOK is debatable with polls showing that 2/3 of Greeks rejecting the PM's dilemma. However, the use of such dramatic tactics so early on in the current administration's term is indicative of the massive drop in support for the government and growing dissatifaction with the austerity measures which have hit middle and working classes especially hard. Evidence of the effects of the economic crisis can be seen everywhere from a thousands of closed businesses to the growing number of homeless begging in the streets.

Many families are struggling even to pay utility bills as witnessed by recent statistics published in the Greek press which show that 1 in 4 electricity bills have gone unpaid. In addition the country's largest telecom provider OTE reported that half a million bills are overdue.

The announcement of yesterday's results was greeted by all parties as a victory with Giorgos Papandreou announcing that it showed that the country was behind his government's attempts to save Greece from bankruptcy and so ruling out new elections. Antonis Samaras, the leader of the largest opposition party New Democracy hailed the vote as an endorsement of his party's anti – Memorandum stance. Aleka Papariga, leader of the Greek Communist Party noted that her party was the only won to increase its share of the vote .

Although the Left benefitted somewhat from the anti – PASOK protest vote it failed to make enough headway to upset the political status quo, similarly, the far Right LAOS party who at one point seemed poised to supplant the more mainstream New Democracy in opposition paid the price for its support of the government's measures.

However, the fact that so many Greeks choose not to vote has worried many political commentators. That voter turn out was at a historical low reflected the disgust and antipathy many feels for the political choices on offer. Amongst ordinary people there is a growing sense of dissafection with the two major political parties and families who have dominated Greek politics since the restoration of democracy in 1974.

In the capital, Athens turn out was especially low with nearly 60% choosing not to vote, a figure that is nearer 70% if spoilt and unmarked ballots are included. After a succession of governments on the right and the left promising and failing to reform Greece's underperforming state, fight corruption and bring development only party die hards remain convinced that those in power can bring about the much needed changes required if the country is to survive in 21st century.

Feeling betrayed and angry with the “politics as usual” attaitude of the larger parties some voters, especially in Athens have turned to more extreme alternatives. The neo – nazi Golden dawn party received over 5% of the vote in the capital as a whole though in some districts the figure was over 20% guaranteeing them a seat on the Athens municipal council

Greek neo nazis given prime time TV slot

As I speak ET1 the Greek equivalent of BBC1 is showing a speech by members of the neo - nazi Crysi Aygi (Golden Dawn) party. So far the speaker as announced an economic program that comes right out of Mein Kampf, celled for the ethnic cleansing of the northern province of Thrace and claimed that the only people who can call themselves Greek are those who have a direct blood line. How on Earth is this nazi filth being broadcast on prime time TV by a state run television channel?

Chysi Aygi supporters have a rich history of violent attacks on immigrants, political opponents and anyone they suspect of opposing their twisted views. Yesterday singer, Sofia Papazoglou was attacked by their thugs for throwing away a leaflet she had been handed while at an Athens tube station. Last november American film maker, Ray Pride was beaten by Chysi Aygi members in the centre of Thessaloniki during a party rally.

As you can see this is not a group that can be trusted with even the slightest form of power. The more they get the more violent they become.

Recently the Greek government testified to the United Nations Human Rights Commission that no such groups exist in the country. Now they are promoting their sick program.