What If The World Ended And No One Noticed? The Greek Government Falls

The world ended today at 12.40 PM, at least that's what the Greek and much of the international media had led us to believe would happen if the parliament in Athens failed to elect a new president after its third and final attempt today.

I happened to be walking through the centre of Thessaloniki, Greece's second largest city when the news broke that  prime minister Antonis Samaras had failed to secure the 180 votes needed to avoid new round of national elections. Alas, no one had told the shoppers getting ready for New Year the terrible revelation that the entire Eurozone economy had fallen off the cliff. I didn't have the heart to break the news to people window shopping on the central Tsimiski boulevard.

For such an apocalyptic event you'd think there would be some reaction, some sign of hysterical disbelief, but nope, nothing, nada, tipota as they say in Greece. But the world only ended in that magic realm called the mainstream media, home to unicorns, endless talk of crisis and hyperbole, not in the really, real world of shoppers struggling against the unseasonable cold snap that has gripped the city recently.

Unlike the ladies and gentlemen of the press peddling the end of the world angle this news was just another scaremongering story to be shrugged off by a people who have been subjected to six years of such nonsense. There are only so many time you can see on the nightly news bulletins that the End Is Neigh before you switch off.

For the last few weeks the government choice of candidate for president has attracted the kind of attention usually lavished on US presidential races, the parliament in Athens was besieged by foreign reporters eager to get the latest news during the first rounds of the vote.This is strange for a number of reasons, not least being the fact that the Greek president plays the same kind of role in the country's political system that the White House cat has in Washington. Also the results of the first two rounds of voting were a foregone conclusion to everyone inside Greece and a source of high drama to those reporters who'd parachuted in to cover the story.

The inevitable defeat of Stavros Dimas, the coalition's choice in these votes produced endless speculation amongst many foreign correspondents seemingly unaware that the real drama would be today when parliament voted once more. But why let something as mundane as reality spoil a white hot story? Where's the fun in that?

For a post that has little but symbolic value, the choice of Greek president was something that EU leadership seemed to take very seriously, like guys debating BBQ techniques, everyone had an opinion and everyone knew that not electing a president would be a VERY, VERY BAD THING!

In the Greek press the pages of the national newspapers and the nightly news bulletins were full of the dire consequences of not electing a president. There would be bank runs warned the head of the Bank of Greece, the sacrifices of the Greek would be wasted said the prime minister, the vote would be a "credit event" said the coalition spokeswoman in a TV interview. Everyone agreed that not electing a president would be a VERY, VERY BAD THING!

Then to add even more drama, the second vote was accompanied by accusations that some were attempting to bribe MPs to switch sides and support the coalition candidate. Pavlos Haikalis, an Independent Greeks MP recorded what he claimed was one such attempt on video and gave it to the authorities who promptly dismissed the accusation. The government and their allies in the media also claimed that such accusations were part of a plot by the opposition and the SYRIZA party in particular to derail the vote by intimidating MPs who might have wanted to change their stance.

As if to hammer home just how important the vote was the Greek prime minister addressed the nation on Saturday in a televised interview carried out by members off the state run NERIT network. In what can only politely be called a "staged" event the two nervous journalists who looked as if they expected to be fired or executed at any moment tentatively asked a series of questions which the PM  answered with the aid of an autocue or say many commentators. With the kind of care you use when feeding your holidaying neighbour's pit bull they went through the motions of an interview, probably thankful they got through to the end of it still with all ten fingers attached.

No follow questions were permitted and not one of the many dubious claims made by Antonis Samaras during the 30 minute audience were challenged instead of a hard hitting journalistic challenge, the whole event seemed more like a monarch granting an audience to courtiers. Ιndeed outside dictatorships of the Central Asian republics and North Korean kind, it's rare to see such an easy ride given to any political leader.

Despite all this drama which included members of the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party being bussed in from prison the vote turned out to be a lot less close than many (including myself) had predicted. The government failed to persuade any more MPs than the 168 that had supported them in the second round, falling far short of the 180 needed. Within less than two hours the date of national elections,   25th January was announced suggesting that the result came as no surprise to the political leadership.

Judging by the tactics, tone and rancour of this vote the national elections promise to be one of the dirtiest in living memory. With the radical left SYRIZA ahead in the polls and committed to challenging Greece's creditors the stakes couldn't be higher not just for a political establishment that has held sway since the 70's but also the country's shadowy, but ever present economic elite who have thrown their weight along with their media outlets behind the government.

The Guardian and SKY are already talking of crisis and economic turmoil, which is strange way to describe  a democratic vote in times of peace. But as happened in the 2012 elections showed there are many outside Greece eager to sway voters and make sure their opinions are heard.Once more a small economy on the edge of Europe is taking centre stage, once more punching far above its weight in the international scheme of things.

Greek 2014 election results - a post mortem

First of all, let's get the apologies out of the way. In the run up to the Greek EU and local elections I predicted that the results might bring about major changes in the Greek political scene, even perhaps national elections. Nothing of the sort happened, the coalition remains in power as do the leaders of both New Democracy and PASOK. So how did I get it so wrong?

I had assumed that the weakest link in this particular chain would be the PASOK vote and that a dire poll result for them would signal the end of deputy PM and party leader Evangelos Venizelos. Venizelos, himself had publicly announced in the weeks leading up to the elections that anything less than a 10% share of the vote for his party would destabilise the coalition, hinting that the party might withdraw form power. The fact that PASOK hasn't polled as high as 10% for years seemed to reinforce the impression that changes were on their way.

Throughout the months prior to last Sunday's vote Greek opinion polls consistently underestimated the PASOK vote, most putting it between 5-7% (they received 8% in the EU vote) and since pollsters have historically always been more lenient towards parties in power I, and many others assumed that the final tally could even be lower. It was a sentiment further strengthened by PASOK's dire showing in the first round of the Athens and Thessaloniki municipal and city elections.

Also the fact that PASOK made almost no effort to advertise or campaign during the elections and even went as far as changing their name to Olive Tree (Elia) just added to the impression of a political organisation on the verge of collapse. Unlike 2009, there were none of the mass public rallies that used to, until recently, be the hallmark of Greek campaigning.

With New Democracy the issue was never one of collapse but rather how wide the gap would be between them and SYRIZA, by May even the most pro-govt pollsters could no longer hide the fact SYRIZA was pulling ahead, the question was by how much. Poll figures which were notoriously inaccurate  in 2012 had to be taken with a pinch of salt. The dream result for SYRIZA would have been one in which their share equalled or exceeded the combined vote of the coalition parties. Then, opposition leader Alexis Tsipras could claim that the government no longer had a popular mandate and therefore demand national elections. In the end neither happened.



New democracy lost by less than 4% and so prime minister Antonis Samaras could sell the defeat as the inevitable price of imposing difficult, but necessary reforms mid-term. Venizelos could argue that the results showed that the fall in popularity PASOK has suffered since the start of the crisis has been halted, and even reversed. In both cases the party base could be mollified with the idea that while not great the outcome could have been far worse.

So business as usual? No, I said that these elections marked the end of an era and that still remains true as the political landscape today is radically different form the one in place during the last European parliamentary elections in 2009. Then both PASOK and New Democracy were unassailable electorally, able to attract tens of thousands to their public rallies. Giorgos Papandreou and then prime minister Kostas Karamanlis could speak in public and mingle with party supporters would give them the kind of reception usually reserved for teen idols such as Justin Bieber. Between them the two parties garnered 70% of the vote and sent 16 out Greece's 22 MEPs to Strasburg. In 2014 most public rallies were marked by small turnouts and extremely tight security measures, the coalition's share of the vote had dropped to 31% and just 8 MEPs.

PASOK has lost much of its clout in the cities, where previously it had been entrenched, replaced by SYRIZA mayors and councilors. On the other hand the Golden Dawn vote  remained high and has weakened New Democracy, despite almost entirely negative press and a legal crackdown on its leadership. Even with no positive TV exposure, the antipathy many conservative voters feel towards the present government outweighed misgivings over Golden Dawn's true identity. Nor was this move right limited to those neighbourhoods hit hardest by job cuts, even in the upscale central district of Kolonaki, Athens, home to many foreign embassies Golden Dawn polled 13.7%.

With popular support at an all time low and a yet more austerity measures set to be imposed the Greek government's slim majority is coming under ever greater pressure, especially as despite all claims to the contrary the real economy is not improving, unemployment refuses to drop from record highs , trade deficit is climbing and the debt continues to balloon in size. While the national leadership may be congratulating themselves on retaining power, the wild last-minute assurances of vast numbers of new jobs and more foreign investments will come to haunt them in future clashes with the opposition who will seize upon such broken promises that the current political elite cannot be trusted.

Nor can such anger be put down as simply a local protest, the elections results across the EU have shown that problems austerity is creating has created a groundswell of resentment against not only national elites but also those operating in Brussels.

Alexis Tsipras - Fighting an uphill battle to get his message out

Alexis Tsipras - leader of SYRIZA, a photo by Teacher Dude's BBQ on Flickr.

For fans of signs and omens the sudden end of summer and onset of rainy weather that accompanied the arrival in Greece's second largest city of the leader of the Radical left Coalition, Alexis Tsipras probably made perfect sense. The sudden chill in Thessaloniki seems to be a fitting metaphor for his relationship with the press as SYRIZA has an uphill battle on their hands trying to get the party's message out in the face of intense mainstream media hostility. With most of the traditional media joined at the hip to more mainstream parties such as New Democracy and PASOK  Tsipras has no natural allies in the media, whose members often play a dual role of journalist and party supporter, an incestuous set - up that has hobbled objective reporting for decades.

Although, by law his party's success in the previous elections guarantees them a certain amount of airtime on state run channels, the rest of the media has done its best to play down their importance.Hardly surprising given the fact that so much of Greece's media is owned by extremely rich oligarchs who are fighting tooth and nail to ensure the country implements austerity conditions demanded by the EU and IMF and so remains in the Eurozone.

The last thing they or the embattled coalition government need is another strong challenge from the Left that threatens to derail the current round of negotiations over spending cuts. As a result SYRIZA has found it hard to gain traction in public opinion and do more than present itself simply as a party of protest. Often it is forced to react to news agendas promoted by the current administration and their supporters in the Greece's news rooms. With the news cycle out of their hands they are forced to play defence and find it difficult to persuade anxious voters that they have are of constructive ideas and not just criticism.

Then again, it would have naive of Tsipras to have expected any other response from a media set up that is so wedded to the corruption and amorality of Greek government politics.  Instead of begging for a place at the table with the big boys, SYRIZA needs to get its message across to the people who no longer read papers or believe what they see on the TV news bulletins.

Some activists are unhappy that that the scale of their victory in June's election has made the party complacent, more interested in playing traditional party political games instead of using their new found leverage to reach out at the grassroots to more people affected by the collapse of the economy in a more direct manner.

Alexis Tsipras at campaign rally in Thessaloniki, Greece

Alexis Tsipras at campaign rally in Thessaloniki, Greece, a photo by Teacher Dude's BBQ on Flickr.

About 2000- 3000 people attended the election rally by The Radical Left coalition of smaller parties in Aristotelous Square in the centre of Greece's second largest city, Thessaloniki.

As support for the two largest parties, PASOK and New Democracy wanes parties on the left and right of the political spectrum are picking up votes from Greeks deeply angered by three years of austerity and economic recession.

Alexis Tsipras speaking at a rally in Thessaloniki today

Alexis Tsipras, leader of the SYN party at the Ivanofeio stadium today. I thought I'd practice my newspaper shooting skills today.