Refugee crisis brings racist rhetoric back into the European mainstream

''The waves of immigrants threaten to turn Europe into an endless hell of Islamic terrorism"

Greek Orthodox bishop Anthimos - Thessaloniki 14th February 2016

The current refugee crisis  has awakened the very worst in Europe's collective psyche, with racist rhetoric that would have been considered unacceptable in "respectable" discourse a few years ago becoming part of mainstream political discussions. Ideas and attitudes that were once the preserve of far right extremists are gradually worming their way into media and political debate as the arrival of refugees prompts responses that often verges on the hysterical.

Bishop Anthimos, who has long been a fixed feature of the Greek Orthodox ultra-nationalist far right addressed a conference on Sunday in the northern Greek city of Thessaloniki in order to draw attention to the supposed threat of the "Islamisation" of Europe. In this he is hardly along as similar ideas are quickly gaining ground in other nations (just see Hungary's PM, Viktor Orban and the rise of the Pegida movement in Germany and elsewhere. With austerity policies making the traditional parties of power ever increasingly unpopular, many politicians have been happy to scapegoat refugees directly or ride the wave of fear whipped up by mainstream media outlets looking to boost flagging ratings and declining political influence.

With many European states willing to use heavily armed NATO warships to stem the flow of refugees in the Aegean and fund Macedonia to fence in EU member, Greece the fear of the Other so shamelessly cultivated by much the continent's mainstream media is bearing poisonous fruit, Once more Europe has shown that Fear sells, both at the polling both and the news stand.

2015 - The Year We Fight Back

We're barely into February and already Syriza, a  radical left government has been elected in Greece in the face of fierce media resistance, their victory challenging the prevailing pro-austerity narrative that has wrought such destruction in southern Europe. Soon it seems the same feat is going to be repeated elsewhere as Podemos gains popularity and takes on Spain's corrupt political elite.

Greek 2014 election results - a post mortem

First of all, let's get the apologies out of the way. In the run up to the Greek EU and local elections I predicted that the results might bring about major changes in the Greek political scene, even perhaps national elections. Nothing of the sort happened, the coalition remains in power as do the leaders of both New Democracy and PASOK. So how did I get it so wrong?

I had assumed that the weakest link in this particular chain would be the PASOK vote and that a dire poll result for them would signal the end of deputy PM and party leader Evangelos Venizelos. Venizelos, himself had publicly announced in the weeks leading up to the elections that anything less than a 10% share of the vote for his party would destabilise the coalition, hinting that the party might withdraw form power. The fact that PASOK hasn't polled as high as 10% for years seemed to reinforce the impression that changes were on their way.

Throughout the months prior to last Sunday's vote Greek opinion polls consistently underestimated the PASOK vote, most putting it between 5-7% (they received 8% in the EU vote) and since pollsters have historically always been more lenient towards parties in power I, and many others assumed that the final tally could even be lower. It was a sentiment further strengthened by PASOK's dire showing in the first round of the Athens and Thessaloniki municipal and city elections.

Also the fact that PASOK made almost no effort to advertise or campaign during the elections and even went as far as changing their name to Olive Tree (Elia) just added to the impression of a political organisation on the verge of collapse. Unlike 2009, there were none of the mass public rallies that used to, until recently, be the hallmark of Greek campaigning.

With New Democracy the issue was never one of collapse but rather how wide the gap would be between them and SYRIZA, by May even the most pro-govt pollsters could no longer hide the fact SYRIZA was pulling ahead, the question was by how much. Poll figures which were notoriously inaccurate  in 2012 had to be taken with a pinch of salt. The dream result for SYRIZA would have been one in which their share equalled or exceeded the combined vote of the coalition parties. Then, opposition leader Alexis Tsipras could claim that the government no longer had a popular mandate and therefore demand national elections. In the end neither happened.



New democracy lost by less than 4% and so prime minister Antonis Samaras could sell the defeat as the inevitable price of imposing difficult, but necessary reforms mid-term. Venizelos could argue that the results showed that the fall in popularity PASOK has suffered since the start of the crisis has been halted, and even reversed. In both cases the party base could be mollified with the idea that while not great the outcome could have been far worse.

So business as usual? No, I said that these elections marked the end of an era and that still remains true as the political landscape today is radically different form the one in place during the last European parliamentary elections in 2009. Then both PASOK and New Democracy were unassailable electorally, able to attract tens of thousands to their public rallies. Giorgos Papandreou and then prime minister Kostas Karamanlis could speak in public and mingle with party supporters would give them the kind of reception usually reserved for teen idols such as Justin Bieber. Between them the two parties garnered 70% of the vote and sent 16 out Greece's 22 MEPs to Strasburg. In 2014 most public rallies were marked by small turnouts and extremely tight security measures, the coalition's share of the vote had dropped to 31% and just 8 MEPs.

PASOK has lost much of its clout in the cities, where previously it had been entrenched, replaced by SYRIZA mayors and councilors. On the other hand the Golden Dawn vote  remained high and has weakened New Democracy, despite almost entirely negative press and a legal crackdown on its leadership. Even with no positive TV exposure, the antipathy many conservative voters feel towards the present government outweighed misgivings over Golden Dawn's true identity. Nor was this move right limited to those neighbourhoods hit hardest by job cuts, even in the upscale central district of Kolonaki, Athens, home to many foreign embassies Golden Dawn polled 13.7%.

With popular support at an all time low and a yet more austerity measures set to be imposed the Greek government's slim majority is coming under ever greater pressure, especially as despite all claims to the contrary the real economy is not improving, unemployment refuses to drop from record highs , trade deficit is climbing and the debt continues to balloon in size. While the national leadership may be congratulating themselves on retaining power, the wild last-minute assurances of vast numbers of new jobs and more foreign investments will come to haunt them in future clashes with the opposition who will seize upon such broken promises that the current political elite cannot be trusted.

Nor can such anger be put down as simply a local protest, the elections results across the EU have shown that problems austerity is creating has created a groundswell of resentment against not only national elites but also those operating in Brussels.

Angie Through The Looking Glass - Merkel visits Athens

Greek recovery is back. The news story that refuses to die no matter how many times the predictions are debunked.

Photo I took during Merkel's 2012 visit to Athens.

Once again the world's press and a large chunk of the nation's police force descended upon Athens in anticipation of the visit by German chancellor, Angela Merkel to beleaguered Greek prime minister, Antonis Samaras.

Bathing in glow of German praise for his government's austerity policies and the a successful five - year bond auction the fragile coalition government and its supporters in the the media were certain that this marked the end of a six-year economic downturn that has not been seen in a developed European country at peace since the Great Depression. Nor was such optimism limited to local reporters and analysts, foreign outlets such as the BBC also waxed lyrically that Greece had finally turned a corner.



Alas, as with so many similar predictions made in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013, the facts, on closer examination do not bear out the basic assumption that a successful bond sale signals growing confidence in Greek economic performance and hence represents the end of the downturn in the real economy. Unemployment still remains high at 26.7% and 20% of those in employment remain unpaid for at least three months, often for much longer. Exports have dropped and GDP is still more than 25% less than it was in 2008. The government is mired in scandal over its connection with Golden Dawn and during the last austerity vote saw it's parliamentary majority drop to just one MP in the 300 seat house.

As if to underline the growing sense of unease, a massive car bomb went off outside the Bank of Greece building in central Athens a day ahead of Merkel's visit. Although police were quick to claim it was probably the work of anarchists, the sophistication and scale of the attack is completely unlike the kinds of attack such groups usually carry out. As yet no individual or group has claimed responsibility.

Yet none of this could puncture the joint Hellenic-German display of  mutual appreciation on display, and to make sure that that would remain so 5000 police officers were on duty to enforce a ban on any form of demonstration in the centre of the Greek capital. Strange that a leader who compared the NSA with the East German secret service (Stasi) for tapping her phone had nothing to say with a display of state strength that Erich Honenker would have gladly approved of.

In keeping with the authoritarian spirit of the day, the Greek state run press Agency APA doctored the chancellor's speech, deleting all reference to austerity in their translation which was released to the local press. Unnecessary given that both state and private broadcasters (which are owned by country's oligarchs with close ties with the ruling parties) went to extraordinary lengths to make sure the prime minister's version of events got as wide and uncritical a hearing as possible.

On  the other hand reactions to Merkel's appearance in Athens on Twitter were almost universally negative, with many comparing it to the visit of a monarch to a newly acquired colony and seething at the revoking of basic civil rights for the duration. Abroad, financial analysts were less giddy with excitement over possibilities of a Greek recovery given that fact that none of the economic fundamentals which are crushing development have changed.

So what was the point? Economically almost none, but politically the return of Greece to the money markets is being sold as a indication that the austerity policies which have brought many European economies to their knees is finally paying off. This is a message we are going to be hearing repeatedly over the next few weeks as EU countries go the poll to vote in European parliamentary elections in May and while this media narrative may play well in Germany throughout the rest of Europe the response could be more muted.

Usually, EU elections are marked by indifference both among the public and the media, but given the growing unpopularity of parties implementing austerity and the rise of the far Right this year's vote is the nearest thing the continent will have to a referendum on the dominant austerity narrative. In the UK, the Conservative/Liberal coalition government is nervously facing the prospect of a spike in UKIP support at their expense. Hollande's position in France would also be seriously weakened if he has a repeat of the debacle his party suffered in the recent local elections.

As well as EU vote Greece will also have local elections in May and the reality is that it will mark the end of a political era with PASOK being ousted from power in many districts, a fall from political grace that has seen its share of the vote drop from 43% in 2009 to around 4%, if recent polls are to be believed. That will probably signal the downfall of deputy PM and PASOK  leader Evangelos Venizelos's time as party leader, even his blustering, bullishness will not be able to keep in check anger at how the party has been destroyed by its leadership's commitment to austerity policies.

Similarly, the prime minister's New Democracy party is also growing restless, unhappy with the coterie of far right advisors and politicians that surround the leader, also worried that they too, may eventually suffer the same fate as PASOK as their power is challenged by SYRIZA on the left and Golden Dawn of the right. A poor showing in May elections may also trigger a challenged to Samaras's leadership.

This is why the visit of Angela Merkel and the bond auction was so vital to a political leadership, desperate to convince the public that despite all the evidence to the contrary the Greek economy is on the right track. Whether this will be transformed in votes in the polls is another matter.Putting aside the growing anti-German sentiment in Greece, the statistics and indicators being used by politicians and media to make the case for recovery are, at best tangential to the everyday struggle for survival many Greeks face. Spreads, yields, and bonds will not make finding a job any easier, reduce skyrocketing tax bills or stop the flood of young people leaving the country.

Is a Golden Dawn role in government on the cards in Greece?

Last week the leading commentator at one of Greece's largest private TV stations raised the possibility of a political alliance between the ruling conservative New Democracy party and the Neonazis in Golden Dawn.

"Why shouldn't New Democracy co-operate with a serious Golden Dawn?" asked Babis Papadimitriou, the head of the staunchly pro-government Skai TV. The statement was prompted by the latest opinion polls that show the continued rise of Golden Dawn, now at 13-15% and the poor showing of the other partner in the Greek ruling coalition, PASOK, whose fall from electoral Grace has seen support plummet from 42% to 7- 8% within the space of four years.

Papadimitriou's remarks immediately provoked a storm of angry response from Greek Twittersphere and political commentators, many of whom believe that this is the first step in the process of "rehabilitating" Golden Dawn. Such was the reaction that Skai dedicated an entire hour the following day to giving Papadimitriou a chance to clarify his stance. His argument was that Golden Dawn, Greece's third most popular party now represent a large proportion of  the electorate and that a similar alliance between centre right and far right parties had already taken place in Norway.

At first glance such an alliance would contradict prime minister, Antonis Samaras's  policy of presenting himself and his party as a bulwark against the threat of rising extremism. The Policy of The Two Extremes as it has been termed involves the government and its supporters in the pro-government mass media painting both its opponents on the Left and Right as a dangerous challenge to political stability, harking back to the often chaotic politics that Greece lived through during the 20th century. With junior partner, the nominally left-wing PASOK party hemorrhaging votes, it's leader Evangelos venizelos has been more than willing to go along with this strategy in the hope of scaring back voters from SYRIZA.

The violence used and glorified by Golden Dawn is therefore equated with supposedly similar trends in SYRIZA and the Greek Communist Party (KKE). In such an equation, brutal attacks on immigrants, Nazi salutes and 1930's style Brown Shirt street fighting is considered the same as strike action or sit down protests. In such a world, New Democracy and PASOK can present themselves as a sane alternative to such political madness, a stabilising influence in difficult times.


The problem with this theory is that just does not reflect reality on the ground, no matter how much political and media spin is used. The rise in political influence and extremism on right has not be mirrored by 1930's style street tactics on the left. It is Golden Dawn MP's who have been charged (though not sent to convicted of) with a raft of offences ranging from assault to possession of illegal weapons. It is their supporters who have repeatedly been accused of endless list of attacks against immigrants and increasingly domestic political opponents.

As if to underline this just a day after Babis Papadimitriou talked of the possibility of  bringing Golden Dawn in to government, 50 of their supporters took part in a bloody attack on Greek communists who has putting up posters in the city of Perama which left nine of them in hospital.

On other hand the differences between Golden Dawn and New Democracy are fewer than they'd either would like to admit publically. The lurch to the right that PM, Antonis Samaras brought to his party has seen the rise to power of far right supporters, many refugees from the ultra-nationalist LAOS party which was all but wiped out in the last elections. In terms of immigration, for example, New Democracy's policies are little more than a more polished version of unvarnished racism of Golden Dawn.

Despite the political risks that both parties face forming an alliance, New Democracy, at least may not have any other choice. The party cannot rule on its own, having seen its share of the vote drop from 40+ % to 26-29% and it's current coalition partner PASOK is fading away, suffering a wane in political fortunes on par with that which struck the UK Liberal party in the 1920's.

Although die-hard supporters still maintain that PASOK leader, Evangelos Venizelos has a master plan to turn the situation around, the reality is that its decline is irrevocable and that any recovery that may take place is years in the future and almost certainly without the presence of Venizelos who has become personally identified with the decline in Greece's fortunes. The fact that a recent poll found that in one of Greece's largest electoral districts in Athens support for PASOK among younger voters was 0% just underlines the the scale of the problem.

Some commentators have argued that the government's demonisation of Golden Dawn rules out a coalition however, in true Orwellian fashion  New Democracy has changed policy stances on a number of occasions. Samaras positioned himself when in opposition as Greece's best hope to fight austerity and then once elected to promote himself as its most loyal defender. Yet one more u-turn in a long history of such moves would surprise few observers and given Samaras's own history as a semi-reconstructed ultra-nationalist an alliance with Golden Dawn would far more sense than one with his arch political rival, PASOK and its leadership.

What is in this for Golden Dawn is less clear since its entire existence is predicated upon its staunch opposition to the political establishment which it has painted as a hotbed of corruption and worse. They have made much of their anger with austerity, promoting themselves as agents of national resistance against a anti-Greek, internationally orientated elite who are betraying the homeland in order to hang onto power. To suddenly join up with New Democracy would risk them being consigned to the dustbin of history, suffering the same fate as far right LAOS party who made the same transition and paid the price for it at the polls.

On the other hand the siren call of access to the State and all the power and privileges that go with it has turned many a head in Greece's turbulent political past. With government position comes the ability to reward followers with public contracts and civil service jobs, a potent recruiting tool in difficult times. More importantly, a role in government brings legitimacy especially in the eyes of Greece's oligarch owned mainstream media who would quickly forget any qualms they once harboured about hosting violent Nazi style idealogues.

None of this is likely to happen soon unless the tensions that underlay the government coalition become untenable and since neither side is looking to go to the polls before it is absolutely necessary that seems unlikely. However, the fact that pro-New Democracy media is mooting the idea of a future alliance between Golden Dawn and New Democracy means that the prospect is being discussed and the waters tested.

Faced with the possibility of a future government lead by SYRIZA Greece's economic and political establishment would be more than willing to hold its nose and embrace a Neonazi party rather than see Greece clash with creditors over the terms of the bailout deal and the attendant risk of exit from the Eurozone.
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*Note. This post was written just days before a man identified as a Golden Dawn member was accused of stabbing to death singer and left-wing activist Pavlos Fyssas.

Despite crisis good times still roll for Greek MPs

Antonis Samaras is currently doing the rounds in Europe, attempting to persuade fellow EU leaders that Greece needs two more years to fulfil the obligations required to receive the country's next installment of cash to avoid bankruptcy. Samaras has even personally guaranteed that Germany will be repaid in full, though how intends to do this is another matter, unless there is a secret coda in Steve Job's will that no one has been aware of till now.

On the other hand The PM's attempt to prove the Greece has changed and become a more fiscally responsible country have been undermined by even high ranking members of his own government, who upon being elected to parliament seemingly appointed to state jobs just about every member of their extended family not in jail or the grave. Case in point being New Democracy heavy weight, Vyron Polydoras, who secured a government job for his daughter after Greece's first national elections in May. Polydoras was also involved in a scandal during the Karamanlis administration after he used his position as minister for public order to have them transferred to his own offices.

However, this misuse of parliamentary privilege is not limited to New Democracy as such moves have been made PASOK, Independent Greeks and Golden Dawn MPs, with a total of 150 extra employees being added to the public payroll at a cost of nearly 3,000,000 euros annually.

At first sight such nepotism and pork barrel politics would seem to give fodder to Greece's foes in Europe who argue that Athens refuses top take reforms of its bloated state sector seriously. However, such accusations ignore the fact that these abuses are the preserve of the those at the top of Greece's deeply corrupt political system. For ordinary Greeks, the cuts in spending are very real indeed. A telling example is that while 187,000 people registered as jobless receive unemployment benefit (usually less than 400 euros a month), 734,000 do not. Hardly evidence of profligate welfare spending and for those who remain unemployed for more than 12 months there is little in the way of financial assistance form the State.


The irony of the situation is that during Greece's deeply divisive dual elections in summer much of the European political leadership and the financial establishment across the world exerted as much influence as it could muster to shore up support for New Democracy and Antonis Samaras, and in doing so helped maintain the corrupt political empires that helped Greece get so deeply into debt in the first place.