Greek elections - state of play so far

The Greek national election campaign is now well under way and all parties involved have started their campaigns, both on the road an in the media. The Greek prime prime minister, Antonis Samaras kicked off New Democracy's efforts with a televised rally in a hotel in city of Larissa, almost immediately followed by SYRIZA leader's rally in a stadium in Athens. The contrast could not have been greater, while the prime minister gave a lacklustre performance which meet with lukewarm response, even among party faithful, Alexis Tsipras on the other hand showed just how far he's come as a public speaker, both energising the party base with his speech and showing that he was clearly setting himself out as a national leader.

In the meantime, coalition party leader Evangelos Venizelos addressed PASOK party members in a cafe, reminding viewers that the glory days of the party when they could attract crowds numbering hundreds of thousands were well and truly over.

To add to the uncertainty surrounding the most unpredictable Greek election in years, ex-prime minister and once leader of PASOK Giorgos Papandreou announced his formation of a new party, The Movement of Democratic Socialists in the same period, a move that was quickly condemned by the current PASOK leader as "irrational and unethical". Some media outlets were even predicting, rather generously as it would later turn out, that the new party would garner anything up to 6% of the poll, so allowing it representation in parliament.

New Democracy's campaign which as being spraying the internet with banner ads and pop up non-stop since the day of the vote for president has been focused on playing on fears of ordinary Greeks that a SYRIZA victory would be tantamount to an exit for the Eurozone, even the the European union itself. 

The talk of Grexit cultivated by the Samaras and echoed by pro-government TV stations and newspapers has spooked markets and led to a number of European officials to back track and say that such a contingency is out of the question. However, such denials did not stop prime minister repeating such threats in his speech on Tuesday in the northern city of Komotini, though latest news reports seem to indicate that the party's campaign will change direction and now focus on the government's track record in power.

As part of this change in tack it seems Samaras is willing to use the even more incendiary topic of immigration, even the tragic deaths of the 12 people killed in the Charlie Hebdo shooting in Paris on Wednesday were used by him in order to attack SYRIZA's immigration policies. In his speech in Halkidi he said, 

"There was a massacre today in Paris yet some people want to invite more illegal immigrants and hand out citizenship"

This campaign promises to be the dirtiest in years, and as if to underline the point the prime minister and other senior New Democracy figures were eagerly using the deaths of the victims in Paris to drum up votes for their party which has consistently been behind the polls over the last few weeks. Whilst some surveys have put SYRIZA anything up to 7.5% ahead, most seem to agree on a 3-4% lead for Alexis Tsipras's Radical Left party, despite the fact that they are facing an almost uniformly hostile mainstream media inside Greece and to a large degree abroad.

If such figures prove accurate this mean that SYRIZA will be unlikely to elect the 151 MPs required to have a majority government in Greece's 300 seat parliament and so will probably need to form a coalition with one or more of the smaller parties vying for power. This is where the waters muddy and accurate predictions of what will happen on election day and afterwards become less certain. All the other parties who could be in parliament are polling between 6 and 2% which given the margin of error present in such cases means any meaningful estimation of how seats will be distributed is difficult.

However, some guesses can be made. It would seem sure that KKE (Greek Communist Party) will once again get 4-6% and so about 12 seats as it did in 2012. Whilst KKE has not been able to exploit the economic crisis in order to widen its base, it's party organisation and strong campaigning abilities mean that the party faithful will turn out and support them. Likewise Golden Dawn's support in the polls has remain steady at 5-6% despite the jailing of most of it leadership on criminal charges pending trial. Despite almost singularly negative press coverage there remains a hardcore of voters who are willing to vote for them, no mater what.

On the other the once might PASOK party was in the throes of a major meltdown, even before the announcement of Papandreou's new party which is likely to drain what is left of its popular support among older voters. Latest polls show PASOK at between 3 and 5% and the Movement of Democratic Socialists at 2-3%, though there is a possibility that neither will break the 3% barrier needed to gain a seat in parliament. The situation is not helped by high level defections from PASOK to other parties. Today, PASOK cabinet minister Angela Gerekou announced she would be standing on a New Democracy ticket in the next elections.

The other major unknown is the amount of success the Potami (River) party will enjoy,set up last year by a former TV presenter with the oligarch owned MEGA TV station, Potami has been built up as a centre - left alternative to SYRIZA for those unhappy with PASOK's record in power. Currently, it is polling 5-7% and seems on track to be the third largest party.

Other parties such as the far light LAOS and the centre left Democratic Left party who once were government coalition partners have paid the price for pushing through deeply unpopular austerity measures and seem unlikely to win even one seat in parliament. Even the Independent Greeks party once seen as a viable centre right alternative to New Democracy is struggling to reach 3%

(It should be noted though that Greece's pollsters have proven notorious political in the results over the last few elections and so any results should be taken with a pinch of salt, and the political affiliations of the news outlets that commission them should be taken into account).

Whatever the final outcome, it seems SYRIZA may need allies, but this is where things get complicated. A first glance the most obvious coalition partner would seem to be KKE but this is extremely unlikely given the deep ideological gulf that divides them. The insistence of KKE's party leadership on maintaining ideological purity in the face of siren calls of power is unlikely to disappear soon.

A partnership with either a rump PASOK or Potami also is not without risks and threatens to split SYRIZA which till very recently was a loose coalition of leftist parties, many of who are far to the left of the Tsipras leadership and would view such allies with the deep suspicion, seeing them as the agents of the establishment seeking to worm their way back into positions of power and responsibility. 

Finally, there is a possibility that no government may be formed and so Greece may have to go to the polls again. Such a move would definitely make the nation's creditors deeply uneasy as it would raise the spectre of default over debt repayments due in 2015. 

With new elections approaching EU's war of words with Greece gets down and dirty

The announcement last week that none of the parties in the Greek government were able to form a government has brought with it a dose of madness that dwarfs even the fervid election campaign rhetoric that proceeded it. If you were to take the statements of much of theforeign and local mainstream media at face value Greece is about to collapse andthat it will take with it much of the Eurozone.. Once again Athens is at the centre of a maelstrom of media speculation that can be seen as a retread of 2011 when the Greek prime minister, GiorgiosPapandreou raised the possibility of Greece holding a referendum on whether it should implement yet more austerity measures . Then the suggestion was met by a vociferous campaign from within Greece, not to mention the pressure exerted by Paris,Brussels and Berlin.

With Papandreou now gone from the political scene, his role as the Eurozone's enemy number one has been taken over by Alexis, Tsipras, the leader of the Radical Left Coalition (SYRIZA), which if the name didn't give you a clue is a group of socialist and communist parties who shot into second place in the May elections campaigning on the promise to defy European Union's demands for yet more austerity measures.

The results has been a surge of interest in Greece and a concerted attempt to paint anti-austerity politicians and parties as extremist and dangerous. The new media narrative being created goes like this; Tsipras and, by extension any political group opposed to the terms set down by Athens's creditors are putting in danger Greece's place in the Eurozone and so inviting economic collapse by forcing it to re-adopt the drachma. Some variations on this theme even go as far as to say that Greece may even by kicked out of the EU, and so face decades of North Korean style isolation.

It is a story that has been carefully cultivated in the local press as well, with daily horror stories coming out in the state run TV stations and their allies in the privately controlled media sector. Pro-austerity parties such as PASOK and New Democracy appear regularly to crank up the fear factor by painting the Radical Left as a bunch of crazed fanatics hell bent on destroying what's left of the economy.

If that wasn't enough this week's non-story about a run on Greek banks was gleefully jumped upon and news organisations were desperately trying to recruit local bloggers/twitter users to feed them stories of people besieging banks to take out their money. Rumours of banks limiting withdraws to just 50 E swirled around the internet. That neither was happening proved to be no impediment to reporters eager to get another scoop.

The fact that this week the EU decided to cut off funding to Greek banks it deemed non-viable did nothing to help the situation , leading some commentators to say that maybe that was their intention after all. An example of yet more attempts to nudge the Greek electorate in the “right”direction.

This week also saw the arrival of EU president, Martin Schulz in Athens, obstensibly to persuade the new Greek government to adhere to its earlier fiscal commitments, however, his public appearances with both the leaders of PASOK and New Democracy made it quite clear that the EU wanted it's say in Greece's next round of elections. A message with he then went to repeat on state run and pro-austerity channels yesterday and today.

If that wasn't enough the suggestion by German chancellor Angela Merkel toGreek president KarolosPpapoulias that Greece hold a referendum on membership of the euro was meets by angry accusations of interference in Greek internal affairs. Raising ugly memories of the two countries troubled past relationship.

Ironically, the suggestion, which the German chancellor's office denied (the office of the Greek president then went on to deny the denial) has helped undermine the position of those parties who are hoping to persuade Greek voters to swallow more job cuts and tax increases scheduled for June.

Whether the fear of expulsion from the Eurozone is working is hard to tell. Some local opinion polls have put New democracy ahead of SYRIZA but then there are otherσ which show wildly differing results. The problem is that no one knows what will happen in June. Gauging public opinion has become much harder when the two main political parties are constantly changing their make up and positions. PASOK has decided, under it determinedly uncharismatical leader, Evangelos Venizelos to distance itself from both scandal ridden past by abolishing much of its present hierarchy.

On the other hand Greece's right has seen a flurry of deals and team changes. With members of the smaller unsuccessful parties jumping ship to sign up with Samaras's right rainbow alliance. Howe much of this will change the results of the elections is hard to say. Many of those retuning to New Democracy such as ex party super star, Dora Bakoyianni, northern populist, Panayiotis Psomiadis (once again the subject of  legal proceedings) and former MPs with the far right LAOS party are hardly the stuff that electoral landslides are made of.

With a party made up of those willing to change political allegiances at the drop of a hat, it is going to difficult to persuade sceptical voters that the right won't result to yet more u-turns and back flips if elected.

Far away from the endless media attention to those in mainstream politics, ordinary Greeks continue to face the everyday grind of surviving in a shrinking economy in which 30-40% are living in poverty, more than half the country's youth (some of the most educated in Europe) are without work and no one knows when things will get better.

Beyond vague promises to renegotiate the terms of Greece's bailout, only SYRIZA has offered something positive to those who have already lost so much. Even if it's the empty gesture of defiance it gives something concrete to those left bitter and disillusioned by the country's more moderate political choices.

Greece: Light blue touch paper and stand well back

Evangelos Venizelos, a photo by Teacher Dude's BBQ on Flickr.

Over the last two days it seems that the Greek government has been in tense negotiations with the IMF and EU partners over the conditions attached to the country's sixth bailout installment. The local media has been cutting into normal programming to report even the the slightest update over the state of play.

In an address to the nation on Sunday, deputy prime minister quoted Churchill to show quite how serious the situation Greece was facing. In Venizelos's opinion anything but a united front by Greek political parties, academics and the media would lead to disaster and  in a fierce attack on critics he stopped just short of accusing those opposed to the austerity measures of treason.



So considering the atmosphere of supposedly feverish negotiations it came as more than a surprise when the IMF's official spokeman said that Athens's creditors had in fact demanded no new cuts or taxes but rather that the ruling PASOK government applied measures that had already been agreed upon in summer.

And there you have so many of Greece's problems in a nutshell. The country's political elite, even as the situation deteriorates even further still continues playing the same old games.Like generals fighting the last war, the leadership of PASOK still thinks it can fob off foreigners with promises it cannot keep while fobbing off domestic critics with talk of victories won.

However, this particular web of half-truths, fudges and outright lies is about to crumble as it becomes more and more apparent that Athens hasn't the political power to stop massive cuts in public services and pay. On the other hand local trade unions, public sector workers and huge swathes of the population facing yet more tax hikes are at breaking point. After three years of recession pockets are empty, people are desperate and anger at the mendacity and ineptitude of the country's political class is at an all time high.



Even before the present debt crisis public confience in the political system was low following the seemingly endless series of corruption scandals that dogged the conservative New Democracy's five years in power. Even by the abysmally low standards of Greek politics the Karamanlis administration had reached new depths of veniality, helped in part by laws drafted by present deputy PM Venizelos protecting ministers from prosecution.

Both major parties are polling historically low and are struggling to get more than 20% of the vote. Nor have the smaller parties both of the left and right been able to capitalise on this trend. Instead there has been a widespread sense of disgust which is signalling a seachange in Greek political life.The current politicial set up is in crisis and despite frantic claims to the contrary no one is clear about how to get Greece out of the hole it finds itself.

Outside the hermetically sealed world of party politics however, protests movements are being created that promise to challenge prime minister Giorgos Papandeou's plans. Even the traditionally pro-PASOK public sector trade unions are promsing a long drawn out fight over cuts in pay, conditions and numbers. A battle that will intensify once details of lay-offs involving 100,000 civil servents are announced this week.



Less predictably, and perhaps more explosively, the country's Indignant movement is likely to see a resurgence following it's violent surpression in June. In addition the "I Won't Pay" civil disobedience movement created to fight road toll hikes is likely to pick up support amongst the 5 million housholds facing an emergency property tax in October as part of their electricity bill. Failure to pay in full will, according to the government result in people having their power cut off

This measure is deeply dispised as it is seen as little more than a legislative smash and grab that will includes the unemployed and disabled but not the nation's second largest property owner, the Greek Orthodox Church.

Just today there are at least three major demonstrations being planned in central Athens, a number that is likely to rise as the full extent of Athens's new austerity measures beome clear.

Venizelos may have compared himself with Winston Churchill on Sunday however, Marshal Petain, leader of the puppet Vichy French regime during World War Two seems a much closer historical fit, given how much national sovereignty has been surrendered propping up an economy on the brink of collapse.

Venizelos is in the house

Tonight I had a couple of hours off so I decided to visit the Palai de Spor and take a few photos of the political speech by Evangelios Venizelos, a candidate for the leadership of PASOK (Greece's version of the UK's Labour party. Alas, he was a bit late, so I just had the chance to take a few shots of him before going to school.