Greece wakes up to a different world.

By all rights the world, at least that corner of the world that is forever Greece should be in tatters, the the entire nation in ruins, or at last teetering on the edge of the abyss. Sorry for the hyperbole but that's what happens when you follow too much of the media coverage of Syriza's unprecedented election victory on Sunday. For those unfamiliar with modern Greek politics for the first time since the mid 70's neither the conservative New Democracy or the nominally centre-left Pasok party will be in government. It is as if USA had just elected a president who was neither Republican or Democrat or that the UK was now governed by the Green Party.

The electoral self-immolation of Pasok along with growing disenchantment with its right wing coalition government partner New Democracy drove away voters who in other eras would never have countenanced voting for a party as avowedly left-wing as Syriza. In doing so they have changed the political landscape more radically than at an other time since the fall of the military junta what ruled Greece till it was toppled in 1974.

Voters, sick of austerity and the endless succession of promises of recovery being just around the corner made by a political elite widely seen as out of touch abandoned the dominant parties to vote for Alexis Tsipras's Radical Left Alliance. Even the weeks of scare mongering by the government and its allies in the media proved insufficient to convince voters to give prime minister Antonis Samaras the mandate he needed to stay in power.The daily predictions by Greek and EU officials of a Grexit, bank runs and even the possibility of a collapse in the economy so dire that ordinary people would not be able to buy even basics such as toilet paper failed to win back lost ground.



However, this  switch in allegiances had less to do with a general surge in sympathy for radical leftist ideas than with a groundswell of disgust with the politics of business as usual which have left many Greeks jobless, poorer and without hope for the future. The siren call of stability which the PM promoted so hard during the short but divisive campaign cut little ice with those who desperately need to see real change and not just endless talk of improvement in the the nation's 10 year bond yield or its standing with credit rating agencies such as Standard and Poors.

Since the the announcement of Syriza's victory on Sunday evening, the political developments have been coming thick and fast. Lacking the 151 seats needed to form a government on its own Greece's new prime minister, Alexis Tsipras brokered a deal with the right-wing Independent Greeks party to form a coalition. The announcement, which was made at midday Monday suggests that neither side was surprised by the offer and that the groundwork had been laid in advance, so catching off guard the other opposition parties who had assumed that the search for a partner would be a long and convoluted process, or even the prelude to another round of elections.

The choice of Independent Greeks has surprised many observers, especially those abroad who find it hard to comprehend a partnership between a radical socialist party and a conservative nationalist one, Yet for Syriza this constitutes the least worst choice given the options available. The most obvious candidate for coalition partner would have been the Greek Communist Party (KKE) but anyone even vaguely aware of Greek politics would have known that such an alliance would have been impossible as KKE would never compromise on its own leftist principles which include leaving the European Union, the Eurozone and NATO.



Others may have considered a partnership with PASOK (well, the S does stand for Socialist) would have been a better fit, but once again the party's role in imposing austerity plus its identification with the country's corrupt political elite would have proven unacceptable to Syriza rank and file, not to mention the fact that it would have instantly damned Tsipras in the eyes of voters seeking change.

The other likely partner for many analysts would have been the recently formed Potami (River) party headed by ex -TV presenter Stavros Theodorakis who's attempt to carve  out a centre - left niche for themselves in the Greek political landscape made them a good match for Syriza, at least on paper. However, this was never really on the cards for a number of reasons. Theodorakis, whose party's funding and basic policies still remain a mystery is widely seen by the Left as a stalking horse for Greece's oligarchs, a front for the vested interests that have been forced to abandon the traditional parties of power. To give Theodorakis the political equivalent of a "kill switch" would have not been acceptable.

So, in the end Independent Greeks who are often painted as a collection of right wing conspiracy theorists and borderline racists (imagine UKIP a la Grecque) made the cut, a decision that has already been condemned by many on the Left, both inside and outside Greece (for an account of why this is so, I recommend this blog post). However, the party led by Panos Kammenos repeatedly made clear its opposition to Troika imposed austerity measures and its participation will perhaps assuage more conservative Greeks that issues such as defence and policing will not be solely decided by a bunch of "wild radicals". It's also an admission that much of Syriza's support is not from those who traditionally identify themselves as left wing, let alone radical socialists.

Above all, such an alliance allows Syriza to implement policies which will be popular with voters and build up a more solid base ahead of any confrontation with Greece's creditors who seem unwilling to back down on the issue of debt renegotiation.

Vote Right. Greek PM's message to voters

The Greek prime minister, Antonis Samaras leaving a campaign rally in Thessaloniki, after addressing the party faithful ahead of the national elections on Sunday.

Once more I happened to be in the right place at the right time, instead of being in a lesson which was a no-show I went to the Vellidio conference centre where the PM was due to speak. I managed to grab the last few few minutes of his speech and seeing he was about to leave via the central entrance I  waited outside for him to carve his way out of the place ahead of the flotilla of secret service guys.

Greek elections - state of play so far

The Greek national election campaign is now well under way and all parties involved have started their campaigns, both on the road an in the media. The Greek prime prime minister, Antonis Samaras kicked off New Democracy's efforts with a televised rally in a hotel in city of Larissa, almost immediately followed by SYRIZA leader's rally in a stadium in Athens. The contrast could not have been greater, while the prime minister gave a lacklustre performance which meet with lukewarm response, even among party faithful, Alexis Tsipras on the other hand showed just how far he's come as a public speaker, both energising the party base with his speech and showing that he was clearly setting himself out as a national leader.

In the meantime, coalition party leader Evangelos Venizelos addressed PASOK party members in a cafe, reminding viewers that the glory days of the party when they could attract crowds numbering hundreds of thousands were well and truly over.

To add to the uncertainty surrounding the most unpredictable Greek election in years, ex-prime minister and once leader of PASOK Giorgos Papandreou announced his formation of a new party, The Movement of Democratic Socialists in the same period, a move that was quickly condemned by the current PASOK leader as "irrational and unethical". Some media outlets were even predicting, rather generously as it would later turn out, that the new party would garner anything up to 6% of the poll, so allowing it representation in parliament.

New Democracy's campaign which as being spraying the internet with banner ads and pop up non-stop since the day of the vote for president has been focused on playing on fears of ordinary Greeks that a SYRIZA victory would be tantamount to an exit for the Eurozone, even the the European union itself. 

The talk of Grexit cultivated by the Samaras and echoed by pro-government TV stations and newspapers has spooked markets and led to a number of European officials to back track and say that such a contingency is out of the question. However, such denials did not stop prime minister repeating such threats in his speech on Tuesday in the northern city of Komotini, though latest news reports seem to indicate that the party's campaign will change direction and now focus on the government's track record in power.

As part of this change in tack it seems Samaras is willing to use the even more incendiary topic of immigration, even the tragic deaths of the 12 people killed in the Charlie Hebdo shooting in Paris on Wednesday were used by him in order to attack SYRIZA's immigration policies. In his speech in Halkidi he said, 

"There was a massacre today in Paris yet some people want to invite more illegal immigrants and hand out citizenship"

This campaign promises to be the dirtiest in years, and as if to underline the point the prime minister and other senior New Democracy figures were eagerly using the deaths of the victims in Paris to drum up votes for their party which has consistently been behind the polls over the last few weeks. Whilst some surveys have put SYRIZA anything up to 7.5% ahead, most seem to agree on a 3-4% lead for Alexis Tsipras's Radical Left party, despite the fact that they are facing an almost uniformly hostile mainstream media inside Greece and to a large degree abroad.

If such figures prove accurate this mean that SYRIZA will be unlikely to elect the 151 MPs required to have a majority government in Greece's 300 seat parliament and so will probably need to form a coalition with one or more of the smaller parties vying for power. This is where the waters muddy and accurate predictions of what will happen on election day and afterwards become less certain. All the other parties who could be in parliament are polling between 6 and 2% which given the margin of error present in such cases means any meaningful estimation of how seats will be distributed is difficult.

However, some guesses can be made. It would seem sure that KKE (Greek Communist Party) will once again get 4-6% and so about 12 seats as it did in 2012. Whilst KKE has not been able to exploit the economic crisis in order to widen its base, it's party organisation and strong campaigning abilities mean that the party faithful will turn out and support them. Likewise Golden Dawn's support in the polls has remain steady at 5-6% despite the jailing of most of it leadership on criminal charges pending trial. Despite almost singularly negative press coverage there remains a hardcore of voters who are willing to vote for them, no mater what.

On the other the once might PASOK party was in the throes of a major meltdown, even before the announcement of Papandreou's new party which is likely to drain what is left of its popular support among older voters. Latest polls show PASOK at between 3 and 5% and the Movement of Democratic Socialists at 2-3%, though there is a possibility that neither will break the 3% barrier needed to gain a seat in parliament. The situation is not helped by high level defections from PASOK to other parties. Today, PASOK cabinet minister Angela Gerekou announced she would be standing on a New Democracy ticket in the next elections.

The other major unknown is the amount of success the Potami (River) party will enjoy,set up last year by a former TV presenter with the oligarch owned MEGA TV station, Potami has been built up as a centre - left alternative to SYRIZA for those unhappy with PASOK's record in power. Currently, it is polling 5-7% and seems on track to be the third largest party.

Other parties such as the far light LAOS and the centre left Democratic Left party who once were government coalition partners have paid the price for pushing through deeply unpopular austerity measures and seem unlikely to win even one seat in parliament. Even the Independent Greeks party once seen as a viable centre right alternative to New Democracy is struggling to reach 3%

(It should be noted though that Greece's pollsters have proven notorious political in the results over the last few elections and so any results should be taken with a pinch of salt, and the political affiliations of the news outlets that commission them should be taken into account).

Whatever the final outcome, it seems SYRIZA may need allies, but this is where things get complicated. A first glance the most obvious coalition partner would seem to be KKE but this is extremely unlikely given the deep ideological gulf that divides them. The insistence of KKE's party leadership on maintaining ideological purity in the face of siren calls of power is unlikely to disappear soon.

A partnership with either a rump PASOK or Potami also is not without risks and threatens to split SYRIZA which till very recently was a loose coalition of leftist parties, many of who are far to the left of the Tsipras leadership and would view such allies with the deep suspicion, seeing them as the agents of the establishment seeking to worm their way back into positions of power and responsibility. 

Finally, there is a possibility that no government may be formed and so Greece may have to go to the polls again. Such a move would definitely make the nation's creditors deeply uneasy as it would raise the spectre of default over debt repayments due in 2015. 

For UK politicians Greece still has lessons worth learning

New Democracy campaign rally

At first glance Greece and Britain would seem to have little in common, stuck as they are at the opposite ends of the European Union not only geographically but also economically. Whilst the UK economy has slowed down in the wake of the 2009 downturn, it has not seen anything like the destruction in terms of income and output suffered by the small Balkan nation.

However, despite the differences in history and modern political culture the British political scene is showing remarkable similarities to its Hellenic counterpart. Old certainties are crumbling, the traditional parties of power are facing challenges and new formations have emerged that undermine the status quo.Like UK politics, modern Greek politics have been dominated by two main parties, the centre Left PASOK and the centre right New Democracy have held power in one form or another since the 80's and even as late as 2009 could easily assure (in all but a few cases) that they would rule without the need of a coalition partner. All that has gone and along with it an entire political system that grew up in its wake.

The most dramatic fall has been that of PASOK who in 2009 could still drum up 44% of the popular vote yet today languishes at 6-7% in the polls. While the conservative New Democracy party has suffered less it has seen it's level of support drop by a third and can no longer rule alone, both the victim of unpopular austerity measures that have failed to lift the economy out of the crisis and have seen the country's foreign debt balloon.

Antonis Samaras - Greek prime minister

So what can UK political leaders learn from these experiences? Judging from recent development probably very little as they seen intent on using the same formulas that have been tried and found wanting not only in Athens but across the EU. This means that in all likelihood the same outcomes will be seen in Britain meaning what exactly?

1 - Under pressure from the rise of UKIP (United Kingdom Independent Party) UK Tories have been moving to the Right in order to win back ground on issues such as immigration and law and order. The Greek prime minister, Antonis Samaras reacted in this manner in order to thwart the rise of Golden Dawn who have been siphoning off votes from New Democracy's right flank. This resulted in mass police sweeps of recent arrivals in Athens and the creation of internment camps where those without documentation sometimes wait for months or years to be released.

Such draconian measures did little to win back voters, as this strategy suffers from two weaknesses; firstly, the move to the right legitimises the other, smaller right wing parties and so allows them to fight campaigns on their "own turf" politically. Instead of being on the sidelines shouting to be heard, parties such as Golden Dawn, True Finns and France's National Front get a front row seat in political and media debates and so policies once considered as extreme  or part of the lunatic fringe are suddenly seen as part of mainstream discourse.

Secondly, the growing distrust of mainstream political parties means that while conservative voters may agree with a "tougher" stance on issues such as immigration they may not believe that the Tories will keep their word, or that any measures taken will be purely cosmetic.So in the end the use of "dog whistle" politics damages the Conservatives who alienate the centre while not convincing those further to the right that they can be trusted to keep campaign promises.

2 - UK Labour party has promised that should it win power it will produce a balanced budget which means that unless it seriously changes taxation legislation (almost unthinkable for Labour strategists) this will involve a series of cuts in public spending so repeating previous Tory policies. Since 2009 Labour's equivalent, PASOK has applied such cuts in order to comply with foreign creditors' demands and the result, politically has been a decimation of its party base and the rise of the once, tiny SYRIZA radical left party which is poised to become the next government of Greece.

Giorgos Papandreou - former Greek prime minister

As there is no SYRIZA waiting to step from the wings in British politics many traditional party Labour voters will probably either vote UKIP (or SNP in Scotland) or simply not bother voting given they have been offered no real choice in terms of policies on offer.This decline is simply heightened by the lacklustre leadership of Ed Miliband, whose wooden speaking style and inability to connect with ordinary voters echoes that of ex - Greek PM and PASOK leader, Giorgos Papandreou who suffered from the same weaknesses.

3 - It seems that fate of smaller coalition partners across the EU to be diminished by their time in power and this is no different in Greece or Britain. So far three parties have at one point or another formed a coalition with the dominant New Democracy party and all three have seen their support dwindle from the alliance. Both the far right LAOS party, the centre left Democratic Left parties have virtually disappeared from the polls and a rump PASOK is languishing with support in the single digits.

Likewise, the UK's Liberal Democrats have also paid the price of a place at the table and the endless compromises they have made in order to accommodate the Conservatives' agenda will become crystal clear in the 2015 elections when few of those who switched their votes in the previous general elections will make the same mistake again.

4 - In Greece the demands that government pass yet more cuts and impose more taxes has forced previously implacable political enemies to kiss and make up in order to pass legislation in parliament that is deeply unpopular. The sight of a series of government with both PASOK and New Democracy has weakened both and led many voters to dismiss both as simply two sides of the same corrupt political coin, further fuelling the rise of other parties both on the Left and the Right.

Alexis Tsipras - leader of the SYRIZA party

In the UK the sight of David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg all campaigning side by side in the Scottish referendum has produced a similar image, the idea that despite all the faux fighting over issues, all three parties are essentially the same when push comes to shove. This unedifying sight will also help UKIP, promoting their idea that they are the plucky political outsiders, untainted by the politics of compromise, willing to take on vested interests.

This approach has certainly worked for Greece's neo-Nazi Golden party which has managed to retain third place in the polls by presenting itself as a right wing anti-systemic force, untouched by the corruption associated with politics of power. It's a message so powerful that Greek conservative voters are willing to oversee the parties bloody recent history and blatant extremism, not to mention universally negative press.

While the UK mainstream may rain down scorn and indignation on UKIP, in the end it probably won't deter many from voting for them, since as the Scottish vote showed even the weight of the entire press corp against you doesn't always guarantee that people will buy into an agenda that the media has set out.

The reality is that in both politics and media  the old world is disappearing and yet those at the top of both these greasy poles seem intent on ignoring these changes, terrified of the new, intent on clinging to worn out ideas whose sell by date has long gone, the only question is how long the political leaders and their media teams across the EU will insist on using tactics and polices that are obviously not working.

Greek 2014 election results - a post mortem

First of all, let's get the apologies out of the way. In the run up to the Greek EU and local elections I predicted that the results might bring about major changes in the Greek political scene, even perhaps national elections. Nothing of the sort happened, the coalition remains in power as do the leaders of both New Democracy and PASOK. So how did I get it so wrong?

I had assumed that the weakest link in this particular chain would be the PASOK vote and that a dire poll result for them would signal the end of deputy PM and party leader Evangelos Venizelos. Venizelos, himself had publicly announced in the weeks leading up to the elections that anything less than a 10% share of the vote for his party would destabilise the coalition, hinting that the party might withdraw form power. The fact that PASOK hasn't polled as high as 10% for years seemed to reinforce the impression that changes were on their way.

Throughout the months prior to last Sunday's vote Greek opinion polls consistently underestimated the PASOK vote, most putting it between 5-7% (they received 8% in the EU vote) and since pollsters have historically always been more lenient towards parties in power I, and many others assumed that the final tally could even be lower. It was a sentiment further strengthened by PASOK's dire showing in the first round of the Athens and Thessaloniki municipal and city elections.

Also the fact that PASOK made almost no effort to advertise or campaign during the elections and even went as far as changing their name to Olive Tree (Elia) just added to the impression of a political organisation on the verge of collapse. Unlike 2009, there were none of the mass public rallies that used to, until recently, be the hallmark of Greek campaigning.

With New Democracy the issue was never one of collapse but rather how wide the gap would be between them and SYRIZA, by May even the most pro-govt pollsters could no longer hide the fact SYRIZA was pulling ahead, the question was by how much. Poll figures which were notoriously inaccurate  in 2012 had to be taken with a pinch of salt. The dream result for SYRIZA would have been one in which their share equalled or exceeded the combined vote of the coalition parties. Then, opposition leader Alexis Tsipras could claim that the government no longer had a popular mandate and therefore demand national elections. In the end neither happened.



New democracy lost by less than 4% and so prime minister Antonis Samaras could sell the defeat as the inevitable price of imposing difficult, but necessary reforms mid-term. Venizelos could argue that the results showed that the fall in popularity PASOK has suffered since the start of the crisis has been halted, and even reversed. In both cases the party base could be mollified with the idea that while not great the outcome could have been far worse.

So business as usual? No, I said that these elections marked the end of an era and that still remains true as the political landscape today is radically different form the one in place during the last European parliamentary elections in 2009. Then both PASOK and New Democracy were unassailable electorally, able to attract tens of thousands to their public rallies. Giorgos Papandreou and then prime minister Kostas Karamanlis could speak in public and mingle with party supporters would give them the kind of reception usually reserved for teen idols such as Justin Bieber. Between them the two parties garnered 70% of the vote and sent 16 out Greece's 22 MEPs to Strasburg. In 2014 most public rallies were marked by small turnouts and extremely tight security measures, the coalition's share of the vote had dropped to 31% and just 8 MEPs.

PASOK has lost much of its clout in the cities, where previously it had been entrenched, replaced by SYRIZA mayors and councilors. On the other hand the Golden Dawn vote  remained high and has weakened New Democracy, despite almost entirely negative press and a legal crackdown on its leadership. Even with no positive TV exposure, the antipathy many conservative voters feel towards the present government outweighed misgivings over Golden Dawn's true identity. Nor was this move right limited to those neighbourhoods hit hardest by job cuts, even in the upscale central district of Kolonaki, Athens, home to many foreign embassies Golden Dawn polled 13.7%.

With popular support at an all time low and a yet more austerity measures set to be imposed the Greek government's slim majority is coming under ever greater pressure, especially as despite all claims to the contrary the real economy is not improving, unemployment refuses to drop from record highs , trade deficit is climbing and the debt continues to balloon in size. While the national leadership may be congratulating themselves on retaining power, the wild last-minute assurances of vast numbers of new jobs and more foreign investments will come to haunt them in future clashes with the opposition who will seize upon such broken promises that the current political elite cannot be trusted.

Nor can such anger be put down as simply a local protest, the elections results across the EU have shown that problems austerity is creating has created a groundswell of resentment against not only national elites but also those operating in Brussels.

Greek Elections: Round One

With the first round of Greece's city and municipal elections over the government coalition parties and the opposition have being trying to persuade the public that they were the winners in yesterday's vote. However, unlike parliamentary or EU elections the conclusions that can be drawn are not so clear cut for a number of reasons.

First and foremost, local election results in Greece, as in the rest of the world are just as likely to be influenced by local issues such as rubbish collection, state of the roads etc. as they are by the party affiliations of the candidate. This mean clear comparisons between these results and national ones cannot be made so easily, for example in Greece's two largest cities, Athens and Thessaloniki independent candidates came first, but in Crete PASOK retained its lead in the municipal elections and conservatives aligned with New Democracy did very well in Macedonia.

Also the fact that many candidates stood as independents or as members of parties that have no clear affiliation with the national ones also makes more general conclusions difficult to make. While in the big urban areas the candidates favoured by the parties are easy to pick out, in other regions the connection, if any between local political groups and candidates and the national parties is less clear to many voters.

Finally, only one fifth of the contested positions have been decided, the rest will have to wait for the second round next Sunday.

The Guardian talked about an anti-austerity backlash and In Athens and Thessaloniki mayoral elections the candidates supported by New Democracy and PASOK fared badly, though how much of that was due to anti-government sentiment and how much was due to less than stellar contenders is hard to say.

However, all these caveats aside a picture does seem to be emerging that confirms recent opinion polls that SYRIZA is gaining strength and that candidates identified with parties that make up the coalition government. are losing support. The fact that the party has made gains in the urban areas is more proof that its is no longer just a raggedy band of protesters and stands poised to replace PASOK as the main opposition party on a permanent basis. Once PASOK loses its stronghold in local government then its ability to keep intact a party machine that depends more on patron client relations than it does on ideology is severely compromised.

New Democracy's position also seems to be under threat, not only from SYRIZA on the Left but Golden Dawn on the right. Despite the fact that much of leadership is behind bars facing criminal investigation, the neo -Nazi party's level of support was back to 2012 levels. Even in chic upmarket neighbourhoods such as Kolonaki in central Athens, they won 13.7% of the vote, in other poorer districts it topped 20%.

The prime minister's campaign strategy of pulling to the Right and co-opting the rhetoric and policies of Golden Dawn seems not to be paying off. Nor has the anti-Golden Dawn media coverage in the pro-government press seemed to have driven away voters.

The May 25th EU parliamentary vote will give a clearer picture of where Greece's parties stand in the eyes of the electorate when the contenders will be standing on party tickets for the 22 MEP seats. In 2009 PASOK and New Democracy won 15 of those, but this time around they'll be lucky to get half that number and there is a good chance that PASOK will get just one seat.

Already SYRIZA is promoting the idea that the EU vote is a referendum on austerity itself and that a poor showing by the government will mark the end of its popular mandate and so be the reason to hold new national parliamentary elections. On the other hand both prime minister Antonis Samaras and deputy prime minister, Evangelos Venizelos are calling upon supporters to vote for the coalition in the name of stability and so as to save a fledgling economic recovery.

My prediction for next week's EU vote is;

1 SYRIZA 20-25%
2 New Democracy 18-23%
3 Golden Dawn 8-10%
4 Potami (River)  6-8%
5 KKE (Greek Communist Party) 4-5% and Olive Tree (PASOK) 4-6%

Greek PM's stealth election campaign comes to town - Thessaloniki

With austerity polices entering their sixth year the difficulties facing Greece's coalition government partners trying to run an election campaign when money is short and their rising unpopularity makes public rallies next to impossible has grown exponentially. Last night's under the radar appearance by the prime minister, Antonis Samaras in the second largest city, Thessaloniki served to underline this. With little advance publicity, the New Democracy stealth election campaign came to town and in front of an audience of 1,200 party die hards Samaras set out one of his latest public appearance before polls open on Sunday.

How times have changed for a politician and a party that in the past could attract crowds numbering in the hundreds of thousands, especially here in a city of 1.2 million that has been, till recently considered one of its strongholds. Sad to see the leader of a nation of 11 million talk before an audience that is smaller than the number of people who follow me on Twitter. Of course, inside Pavilion 13 the thousand or so attendees were made to look much more impressive as wire-borne cameras waltzed above our heads, avoiding at all costs wide shots. Flags waved, the youth wing chanted out slogans in tempo to the whims of their political handlers and the crowd dutifully clapped when required.



Actually, I had no intention of attending the event which I assumed would be an invitation only affair in which the media (or, in my case, not-quite-media) would be kept at arms length. However, following the lead of some friends who were there legitimately, I managed to get myself past the metal detectors and security checks, which was lucky as I would have had a hard time explaining the gas mask in my bag. I'm guessing that telling the police my allergies were playing up would not have been terribly convincing.

However, once inside the venue I decided to exploit my good luck to get into the swing of things taking pictures of the local conservative nomenclature which has ruled Thessaloniki for generations, noting the preparations being made ahead of the main speech. If only New Democracy paid as much attention to economic policy as it did to the placement of flag waving party workers in the bleachers.

And the crowd went wild! The arrival of the prime minister produced a wave of hysteria as loyalists pushed forward to kiss the the hem of the party leader, imagine a Justin Bieber reunion concert 30 years from now and you'll get an idea of the composition and mood of the audience. Unlike PASOK whose party rallies could be mistaken for a pensioner outing, New Democracy does have supporters  below the age of forty, but how many of them are  there to show their support for a better, more market-orientated Greece and how many are New Democracy youth wing careerists with an eye on a place in the civil service is hard to tell.



Once on the podium Samaras immediately launched into attack mode, tearing apart Argentina's recent economic track record, which seems a trifle off topic till you remember that many in the opposition a few years ago used Argentina as an example of how Greece could uncouple itself from a larger currency (in Argentina's case the US dollar) and survive.

Then it was onto cruder attacks on the main opposition party SYRIZA, which included the claim that the party was "planning to flood Greece with illegal immigrants", take the country out of NATO and that they would destroy the economy if they ever got into power. This went down well with ultra - conservative audience who lapped it up with abandon, a reminder that Golden Dawn have no monopoly on prejudice or fear mongering.

Samaras is well aware that despite its hammering at the hands of the pro-government media after the murder of activist Paulos Fyssas Golden Dawn still poses a potent threat to New Democracy's share of the vote. Hence the claims that only New Democracy can stop the Reds stealing your homes and bank accounts, only a strong conservative government can prevent foreign hordes from crossing the borders and swamping the Fatherland.



For anyone familiar with Samaras's political past this comes as no surprise, for while he has remoulded himself as a free - market, neo-liberal conservative, scratch the surface and you can still the ultra-nationalist rabble rouser who made a name for himself in the 90's. In times of trouble and electoral doubt his first instinct is always to go further to the right and rely upon dog whistle issues such as immigration, Macedonia (FYROM) and fear of communism to whip up support from an ageing party base. The Iron Curtain may have fallen in 1989 but for New Democracy old school types this was just a respite from the ever present Red Menace.

Speech over, the prime minister surrounded by secret service agents slowly made his way through a throng of party loyalists stopping every metre or so to shake hands or exchange good wishes. In this tightly controlled bubble, surrounded by friendly faces and even friendlier media outlets,  it would be easy to imagine that the good old days for New Democracy are still here, but beyond Pavilion 13 and the security cordon manned by platoons of riot police Greece's second largest city seems to be indifferent to his charms.

Fear and Loathing on the Greek Campaign Trail

If you took away the cordon of riot police surrounding the building, you could be mistaken for thinking you'd stumbled upon the annual conference of South Jersey importer and exporter association sponsored by a fraternal organisation with its roots in Southern Italy. Made men with large cigars and even larger bellies flowed out of the hall and in between them mingled guys who looked like they made their living doing door duty in third rate provincial "nightclubs. All wearing shades, all unshaven, all willing to take offence at anyone whose gaze lingered upon them any longer than was absolutely necessary.

The latest stop of the PASOK party's 2014 EU election campaign had rolled into town, not that anyone apart from the party nomenclature and a few dozen protesters had noticed. Instead of the mass public rallies that in the past attracted hundreds of thousands of the party faithful, Sunday's event was a part of the new trend towards stealth electioneering, attended by a few hundred local functionaries behind closed doors and lines of riot police.

This is in sharp contrast to the campaigns I witnessed in the late 80's and 90's in which leaders of both the socialist PASOK and the conservative New Democracy parties could count on huge turnouts that would flood the centre of Greece's cities, literally a sea of people as the Greek saying goes. People were gripped by an almost religious fervour and you would have thought rock stars had come to town rather than elderly politicians. However those days have gone and in all likelihood will never return, the victim of changing times and most lately, the six year long economic crisis which is proving as severe as that suffered by the US in the Great Depression. 



The ongoing commitment of successive governments to spending cuts, public sector job losses and tax hikes have all but destroyed PASOK and severely wounded its traditional rival, New Democracy. (PASOK, which is now calling itself Olive Tree is now polling between 10 - 15% of its 2009 strength and new Democracy share of the vote has been cut by half). The leaders of both coalition parties dare not risk public appearances unless they are held incognito or under the tightest security, outdoor events having been replaced with tightly choreographed televised shows as is the case with prime minister Antonis Samaras's rare public outings.

The latest revelations in the Financial Times about how EU leaders egged on the then finance minister (and PASOK leadership rival) Evangelos Venizelos to depose Greece's prime minister, Giorgos Papandreou in 2011 after he proposed a referendum on the terms of the bailout deal has just added to public mistrust of the country's political leadership, widely perceived to be more interested in preserving their own hold on power than defending national interests.

Such a feeling is likely to drain still further support for both government parties and make the chances of the coalition staying intact still less likely. With goes the two party system which has dominated Greek politics since the 1980's and a network of corruption, pork barrel politics and crony capitalism which led the country into its present dire state.

Where Have All The Flags Gone? The End of Days For Greece's Post - Junta Political Order.

At least till recently Greek election campaigns have been vibrant. rambunctious affairs, marked by mass public rallies, a barrage of ads on TV and the kind of political theatre long since extinguished in Northern Europe. Yet this year shows that whilst Greece may be steeped in tradition, it has also a long history of radical change and re-adjustment, a legacy of its traumatic modern history which has seen the small Balkan nation undergo invasion, civil war, famine and spectacular economic growth and decline.

In contrast to 2009's hard fought EU election campaign, the current run up to the dual local and EU parliamentary votes on 18th and 25th May have been so low key as to be practically invisible. Gone are the constant TV ads and posters on every major thoroughfare. gone are the large scale public rallies that used to be the trade mark of both New Democracy and PASOK parties.

So why the reticence on the part of a political caste whose one guiding principle is to stay both in power and the public eye? Partly, it is financial, New Democracy and PASOK are bankrupt in all but name, owing between them 250 millions euros to the banks and as their State funding is linked to electoral prowess their steep decline in support means they have little chance of returning to solvency. State allocation for campaign spending (of which PASOK and New Democracy got the lion's share) which reached 65 million Euros in 2010 has now been reduced to 7 million and with so little cash the lavish outlays that allowed Greece's two largest parties to outspend on a massive scale their political rivals has disappeared.

Partly, the anemic campaign is for reasons of self - defence. Ruling politicians are so detested by many of their voters that any kind of large public gathering is next to impossible unless  the image politicians want to project  is one of anger and discontent. Brave is the government minister who'd appear in public unless in front of a crowd of heavily vetted party loyalists. Whilst opposition parties such as SYRIZA and KKE (Greek Communist Party) will be holding outdoor rallies neither the prime minister nor deputy PM dare risk such a move, fearful that they'd be faced with a sea of hostile faces live on TV.



Case in point has been the election campaign of PASOK leader and deputy prime minister, Evangelos Venizelos. Appearances so far have so been held behind closed doors in meetings held for hard core party cadres rather than rank and file supporters. In each case demonstrations by sacked public sector employees and other disgruntled groups means that such events are marked by high levels of security, further heightening the image of a political elite cut off from the rest of the nation.

For the prime minister's New Democracy's conservative party the picture, whilst not pretty, is nowhere near as dire as that of PASOK but they too are saddled with massive debt load which has severely curtailed their spending. Though much of the mainstream media continues to support them,  a serious decline in TV ratings for the most partisan pro-austerity channels and the collapse in newspaper readership has lessened their ability to set the political agenda.

While the polls show wildly divergent predictions for the results, two things can be widely agreed upon; firstly, that even the support of the country's oligarchs may not be enough to avert SYRIZA becoming the largest party in EU elections (local election results are less easy to use as an indicator for national party support as candidates are forbidden by the constitution to run under national party tickets,). And secondly PASOK will be wiped out, lucky if it elects even one euro MP. A long, inglorious fall from the time it dominated post Junta politics in the 1980's and 90's.

If the results prove particularly disappointing for government coalition partners then there is most likely to be quick and fundamental changes in the party leaderships as different groups vie for power and seek to avoid loss in support.



Venizelos has already warned that anything less than 10%  share of the vote for PASOK Now renamed Olive Tree) will threaten government stability. A strange statement given that the party has not polled as high as 10 percent in years. Nearly all polls show that likely their share will be  be between 3 and 7 percent and that even their recent name change will do little to avert the inevitable

The prime minister is faced with a similar dilemma as a severe defeat at the polls will weaken his position and give ammunition to internal opponents already unhappy with his promotion of far right elements to top party and government posts. Many are suspicious that once again Samaras will lead New Democracy to electoral defeat as he did in the mid 90's when he left the party to set up Political Spring, an act many Karamanlis loyalists still see as an act of betrayal.

The fact that the Greek supreme court has ruled that Golden Dawn can run for elections despite the fact that many of its MPs are facing criminal charges. Must give New Democracy even more reason to fear defeat as both parties have been actively cultivating far right polices in the hope of winning ultra-conservative voters. Problem is that unlike Golden Dawn, the prime minister's long series of u-turns and policy flip flops have disillusioned many on the Right.



Golden Dawn may have been vilified by both local and foreign press for its racist activities,  but there are still many Greeks who will use the party as a vehicle for their anger at the existing political set-up, which is widely perceived as both corrupt and out of touch. Even the media campaign that followed the fatal stabbing of activist rapper Pavloss Fyssas by Golden Dawn members has ended up backfiring as the pro-government stations fall victim to their desire to  please political goals of their owners at the expense of credibility.

The arrival of the Potami - River party formed by former journalist Stavros Theodorakis promises to make firm predictions over the exact result even more difficult. Theodorakis recently set up the party as  non-political alternative to the traditional ones of Left and Right. Initially polls showed support as high as 15% but since then these numbers have dropped significantly especially as questions of how the party has been financed remain unclear and the fact that he was till recently a senior reporter in the pro-government MEGA channel.

However, whatever happens the political landscape forged in the aftermath of the Regime of the Colonels in the 70's is now almost at an end; PASOK, the child of left wing firebrand Andreas Papandreou is all but spent as a major political force, a victim of its adherence to hated austerity policies.



Their eternal rival, New Democracy, also created in the ashes of the Junta is riddled with dissent and after six years of grinding economic decline caused by austerity. Even among the party's core demographics the cuts in pensions, endless list of taxes on property and spending cuts have taken their toll with levels of support now at less than half those of pre-crisis elections.

Finally, next Sunday's vote also marks the death knell for the family dynasties that dominated so much of public life in modern Greece, the latest generation of Karamanlises Mitsotakises and Papandreous both took the reins of power riding to victory on name recognition and achievements of their father's and grandfathers, only to be found wanting as the crisis upturned so many of Greece's political shibboleths.

Konstantinos Karamanlis (nephew of New Democracy founder Kostas Mitsotakis and nephew of previous prime minister Konstantinos Karamanlis) won two terms in office but left behind a heavily indebted economy and a party image battered by string of corruption and influence peddling  scandals.

Similarly, Giorgos Papandreou's (son and grandson of previous Greek prime ministers) time at the helm was no less disastrous than his equally privileged predecessor, faced with an unprecedented economic downturn his vacillation turned a major setback into a full-blown meltdown, eventually leading to him being deposed in a "palace" coup by Evangelos Venizelos when Papandreou threatened the EU and IMF with a referendum over austerity.

Though neither will be missed by most voters, like so many failed leaders of the past they hang on like Banquo's ghost ever ready for a call from the Greece's voters to come back and save the nation. It's a call they are unlikely to receive.

Angie Through The Looking Glass - Merkel visits Athens

Greek recovery is back. The news story that refuses to die no matter how many times the predictions are debunked.

Photo I took during Merkel's 2012 visit to Athens.

Once again the world's press and a large chunk of the nation's police force descended upon Athens in anticipation of the visit by German chancellor, Angela Merkel to beleaguered Greek prime minister, Antonis Samaras.

Bathing in glow of German praise for his government's austerity policies and the a successful five - year bond auction the fragile coalition government and its supporters in the the media were certain that this marked the end of a six-year economic downturn that has not been seen in a developed European country at peace since the Great Depression. Nor was such optimism limited to local reporters and analysts, foreign outlets such as the BBC also waxed lyrically that Greece had finally turned a corner.



Alas, as with so many similar predictions made in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013, the facts, on closer examination do not bear out the basic assumption that a successful bond sale signals growing confidence in Greek economic performance and hence represents the end of the downturn in the real economy. Unemployment still remains high at 26.7% and 20% of those in employment remain unpaid for at least three months, often for much longer. Exports have dropped and GDP is still more than 25% less than it was in 2008. The government is mired in scandal over its connection with Golden Dawn and during the last austerity vote saw it's parliamentary majority drop to just one MP in the 300 seat house.

As if to underline the growing sense of unease, a massive car bomb went off outside the Bank of Greece building in central Athens a day ahead of Merkel's visit. Although police were quick to claim it was probably the work of anarchists, the sophistication and scale of the attack is completely unlike the kinds of attack such groups usually carry out. As yet no individual or group has claimed responsibility.

Yet none of this could puncture the joint Hellenic-German display of  mutual appreciation on display, and to make sure that that would remain so 5000 police officers were on duty to enforce a ban on any form of demonstration in the centre of the Greek capital. Strange that a leader who compared the NSA with the East German secret service (Stasi) for tapping her phone had nothing to say with a display of state strength that Erich Honenker would have gladly approved of.

In keeping with the authoritarian spirit of the day, the Greek state run press Agency APA doctored the chancellor's speech, deleting all reference to austerity in their translation which was released to the local press. Unnecessary given that both state and private broadcasters (which are owned by country's oligarchs with close ties with the ruling parties) went to extraordinary lengths to make sure the prime minister's version of events got as wide and uncritical a hearing as possible.

On  the other hand reactions to Merkel's appearance in Athens on Twitter were almost universally negative, with many comparing it to the visit of a monarch to a newly acquired colony and seething at the revoking of basic civil rights for the duration. Abroad, financial analysts were less giddy with excitement over possibilities of a Greek recovery given that fact that none of the economic fundamentals which are crushing development have changed.

So what was the point? Economically almost none, but politically the return of Greece to the money markets is being sold as a indication that the austerity policies which have brought many European economies to their knees is finally paying off. This is a message we are going to be hearing repeatedly over the next few weeks as EU countries go the poll to vote in European parliamentary elections in May and while this media narrative may play well in Germany throughout the rest of Europe the response could be more muted.

Usually, EU elections are marked by indifference both among the public and the media, but given the growing unpopularity of parties implementing austerity and the rise of the far Right this year's vote is the nearest thing the continent will have to a referendum on the dominant austerity narrative. In the UK, the Conservative/Liberal coalition government is nervously facing the prospect of a spike in UKIP support at their expense. Hollande's position in France would also be seriously weakened if he has a repeat of the debacle his party suffered in the recent local elections.

As well as EU vote Greece will also have local elections in May and the reality is that it will mark the end of a political era with PASOK being ousted from power in many districts, a fall from political grace that has seen its share of the vote drop from 43% in 2009 to around 4%, if recent polls are to be believed. That will probably signal the downfall of deputy PM and PASOK  leader Evangelos Venizelos's time as party leader, even his blustering, bullishness will not be able to keep in check anger at how the party has been destroyed by its leadership's commitment to austerity policies.

Similarly, the prime minister's New Democracy party is also growing restless, unhappy with the coterie of far right advisors and politicians that surround the leader, also worried that they too, may eventually suffer the same fate as PASOK as their power is challenged by SYRIZA on the left and Golden Dawn of the right. A poor showing in May elections may also trigger a challenged to Samaras's leadership.

This is why the visit of Angela Merkel and the bond auction was so vital to a political leadership, desperate to convince the public that despite all the evidence to the contrary the Greek economy is on the right track. Whether this will be transformed in votes in the polls is another matter.Putting aside the growing anti-German sentiment in Greece, the statistics and indicators being used by politicians and media to make the case for recovery are, at best tangential to the everyday struggle for survival many Greeks face. Spreads, yields, and bonds will not make finding a job any easier, reduce skyrocketing tax bills or stop the flood of young people leaving the country.

All The Prime Minister's Men - Top aide to Antonis Samaras reveals his close ties with Golden Dawn

Perhaps one of the worst kept secrets in Greek political life came to light when Golden Dawn MP Ilias Kasadiaris released a video (transcript in English here) which revealed just how close the party was to Takis Baltakos, cabinet secretary to both the prime minister, Antonis Samaras and Deputy PM, Evangelos Venizelos. The tone and content of the conversation underlined what many had suspected that instead of being stalwart foes, the ruling New Democracy party and the avowed political outsiders Golden Dawn party were in fact working closely together.



This is doubly embarrassing for the prime minister as it not only undermines New Democracy's policy of presenting itself as a moderate bulwark against extremism on both the Left and the Right (the so-called Theory of the Two Extremes) but also shows just how little independence the Greek judiciary has in the country's political system. According to Samaras's right hand man, the prosecutions of senior Golden Dawn figures and the imprisonment of its MPs was based on the threat they posed to New Democracy's poll share and not because of their string of violent attacks on immigrants and political opponents.

Despite the fact that the neo-Nazi party had racked up an impressive record of violent racist assaults for years prior to 2013's clamp down the real trigger was, according to the secretly recorded video, their rise to 14% in the polls. Taking advantage of the murder of rapper, Pavlos Fyssas by Golden Dawn members in the port city of Piraeus, Greek police arrested top members of the party and charged them with being part of a criminal conspiracy.According to the transcript, this decision was not based on evidence linking local party supporters involved with the national leadership but rather political pressure brought to bear on judges involved..



Before that, however the Greek prime minister was quite happy to play a double game, on the one hand condemning Golden Dawn as a threat to democracy (especially when abroad) but on the other using their language and ideas to win back conservative voters with anti-immigrant policies taken straight from the pages of the Golden Dawn playbook. Also, when necessary using the threat of an alliance with the party to rein in Democratic Left, the junior party in Greece's (then) three-party coalition government when it threatened to vote against the government over the closure of the state broadcaster, ERT,.

Given Samaras's past as a ultra-nationalist in the in 1990's and the fact that he has surrounded himself with a coterie of far right politicians that this group has close ties with Golden Dawn should come as no real surprise. The ideological overlap between the clique that forms the heart of New Democracy's leadership and the Europe's most far right parliamentary party is much greater than either would like to admit (as least in public).

So, it seems the love that dare not speak its name has become a matter of public record as Greece's creaking coalition govt hangs on by a thread with a majority of one following the expulsion from PASOK of a senior MP who voted again the latest round of austerity laws imposed by Athens's creditors.

In May Greece goes to the polls to vote in European parliamentary, local and if one cabinet minister is to be believed national elections that promise to recast a political landscape that was formed in the 70's. The once powerful PASOK party is likely to be trounced, lucky to elect even one Euro MP whilst its last remaining stronghold in local government will be severely weakened by a drop of 90% in popularity since 2009.



For New Democracy the other traditional party of power the fall has been less crushing but still severe enough to possibly warrant a challenge to the leadership by a party base unwilling to follow PASOK's example and march themselves off into political oblivion.

Now the prime minister's problem is how to manage the decline and turn defeat at the hands of the main opposition party, SYRIZA into a minor victory. If the gap between the two in polls is a matter of a few points Samaras may be able to convince the party base that it was the necessary price to push through unpopular, but much needed policies. If, however, the gap is larger and conservative voters pick Golden Dawn in sufficiently large numbers then Samaras's position will be untenable, leading to a fierce scramble for the leadership within the party and the almost certain end of the unholy alliance between PASOK and New Democracy so putting an end to the coalition government that has governed Greece since 2012. That in turns means new round of national elections in which none of the old political paradigms will apply anymore.

Whilst this is bound to create uncertainty, not least within financial markets, it will signal the end of a era of graft, clientalism and pork barrel politics in which both PASOK and New Democracy officials from the top to the very bottom treated the State as their own private fiefdom and turned a blind eye to the actions of  handful of extremely rich men who used their political connections to wield enormous, and often unseen influence over the economy and lives of millions of Greek citizens.

No More lies - Greece

No More lies - Greece, a photo by Teacher Dude's BBQ on Flickr.

With the crisis dragging on in Greece, voters are growing ever more angry at the lies and spin the government coalition parties employ to distract from their corruption, incompetence and lack of vision for the future.

In May the country will vote in both local authority and European parliamentary elections and if current opinion polls prove correct, then this mark that end of the monopoly on power the nominally socialist PASOK and far right New Democracy parties have held since the late 70's.

PASOK in particular, is likely to hardest hit with possibility that its share of the vote will be as low as 4%, a startling decline from the 44% it won in the 2009 general elections. New Democracy's base is also shrinking as people,sick of austerity and endless finance scandals turn their back on them, many changing allegiance to the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party .

The position of the two main parties is not helped by the fact that between them they have 270 million euros in non-performing loans, which have been serviced since January 2013, making them technically bankrupt.

With the prime minister announcing new taxes on food, property and cigarettes, the chances that his New democracy party will fall from second place to third place behind SYRIZA and Golden Dawn should not be ruled out.

Whatever the final tally is poor results in May's elections will further increase pressure by party supporters and backbench MPs on PM Antonis Samaras and deputy PM Evangelos Venizelos to step down, so opening the way to more instability and the possibility of new national elections in the summer.

Golden Dawn arrests mark sea change in Greek politics.

Striking teachers carry picture of murdered singer, Pavlos Fyssas.

September is usually the time of year when Greek politics shrug off its summer stupor and the country's parties vie with each other to set the political agenda for the coming winter. Yet this year the speed at which developments have unfolded is unprecedented and the arrest yesterday of the leader of the neo-nazi (let's not be coy about using the term) Golden Dawn party leader along with many of their MPs and supporters is just part of a string of developments which are sending shockwaves through Greek political life.

Suddenly, Greece's mainstream media which has often been indifferent to Golden Dawn violence over the past few years is full of stories concerning murders, money laundering etc allegedly carried out in the name of the movement. In fact all those widely documented stories they were so unwilling to report till the Greek government decided to clamp down on the far right this weekend.

The same TV stations and newspapers that till recently were happy to host Golden Dawn politicians have, as if by magic, turned into die-hard defenders of democracy and the sworn enemy of those who threaten its sacred institutions. In a similar vein, these media organisations have run stories concerning secret armies of Golden Dawn cadres trained by Greek special forces, calls for a coup by army reservists and dark tales of infiltration in the military and the police force.

Such stories have been seized upon by foreign correspondents eager for a juicy headline and not too worried by the fact that many of these plots have little in the way of hard evidence to back them up other than anonymous sources quoted in Greece's less than reliable newspapers. At times the furour concerning the influence of Golden Dawn in Greek public life reads like an extract from Evelyn Waugh's satirical novel about journalism, Scoop in which wild rumour is magically transformed into informed analysis by the press.

However, the killing of hip-hop singer and left-wing activist, Pavlos Fyssas (known as Killah P) set off a chain of events that has seen a sea change in Greek public life. Before it, Golden Dawn was cresting a political wave of discontent over austerity and exploiting for all its worth the public's disgust with the existing political establishment. Polls showed its share of  the vote rising and some even predicted that it would go from being the third to the second party in next year's local elections. The lead analyst at the pro-government Skai TV even raised the possibility of a New Democracy - Golden Dawn alliance, saying a similar partnership had been cemented in Norway.

Now all of that is changing, instead of Golden Dawn being invited into government they're now behind bars, facing a raft of serious criminal charges, including that of being a criminal organisation. Opinion polls show a significant drop in support though it should be noted that they still remain the third most popular party a sign that while down Golden Dawn cannot be dismissed just yet.

It seems that the country's political leadership has decided to take the political gamble of clipping Golden Dawn's wings and even hope to secure their right flank by neutralising them politically. They are hoping that such a move will woo disgruntled voters back to the New Democracy/PASOK party fold and allow the coalition to portray itself as the saviour of Greek democracy both at home and abroad.

For domestic audiences the arrests are being used as evidence that traditional parties of government are combatting political extremism and so are a force for stability in difficult times. For those abroad the rise and fall of Golden Dawn can be used to force concessions in Europe in the next round of talks over the latest austerity measures. "Look," they say "if you insist on yet more cuts and firings you'll enable those extremists who wish to destabilise Greece".

Yet this is still a major political risk for prime minister Antonis Samaras. Golden Dawn MPs have threatened to resign en masse which would lead to 18 by-elections and so threaten the government's slim two seat majority. Other commentators are proposing that in such a situation Samaras would have no other choice but to call for general elections. Given the fact that Samaras was happy to bring down the PASOK led government last year just months after it was elected shows that such a possibility does not daunt the man. Indeed, given Samaras's role in bringing down the New Democracy administration in the 1990's, it would par for the course.

While Greek political establishment and its supporters in the mainstream media congratulate themselves on dealing with the threat to public order posed by Golden Dawn others wonder why an organisation facing multiple charges of murder and a much longer  list of attempted murders and other acts of violence was allowed to get away with it for so long. Where have the police and judiciary been while for years gangs of thugs terrorised people on the streets of Greek cities? 

If nothing else the clamp down reveals clearly the lack of distance between Greece's justice system and political parties in power. Only when the political leadership decided that Golden Dawn had gone too far did the police intervene decisively, despite a mountain of evidence collected by Greek and foreign activists over the last four years. 

However, the willingness to overlook racism and violence is not limited to Greece's police officers. On the contrary, both PASOK and New Democracy have been more than willing to adopt Golden Dawn style positions on immigration in order to win back votes by proving that they are cracking down. It is this, along with the crushing effects of austerity that have provided Golden Dawn with so much impetus. The ruling parties have been happy to legitimise racism by making it government policy and so helped turn Golden Dawn from a bunch of nazi-junta nostalgists out on the wilder fringes of Greek political discourse into a part of mainstream public debate.

If the politicians had thought more about ethics rather than polls, if the police had just done their job rather than serve an ever changing political agenda and if both had treated violence against dark skinned people with the same seriousness as those with lighter complexions there would be several people alive today including Pavlos Fyssas, RIP.

What a difference a week makes - Golden Dawn down but not out.

   Picture-anti-fascist demonstrators protest murder of singer in port city of Thessaloniki

A week, as the saying goes, is a long time in politics and the last seven days have seen an apparent sea change in the Greek political scene with the once triumphant Golden Dawn now backed into a corner following the murder of singer by a man, allegedly belonging to the party.Hounded by political opponents, both on the streets and in parliament they have been forced onto the defensive. Even Greece's mainstream media which was till recently suggesting that the party could form an alliance with the ruling conservative New Democracy party has made a U-turn concerning their stance towards Golden Dawn.

The far right Proto Thema newspaper is a case in point, till recently reporters have been more than willing to welcome Golden Dawn MPs on their pages, with lifestyle pieces that glamourised them in much the same way the media glamourise sports or pop stars. Now that has all changed following the killing of Pavlos Fyssas in the port city of Piraeus and now the Sunday front pages and TV news broadcasts are full of condemnation of the party and the killing with daily revelations also alleging financial impropriety by party functionaries are also adding to their woes.

                       Picture-Greek riot police protecting Golden Dawn offices in Thessaloniki

On the streets large anti-fascist rallies were held this week across Greece and abroad as the news of the murder came out, forcing Golden Dawn members to keep out of public view or hide behind thousands of riot police deployed to protect their offices (a blow to the myth that their thuggish tactics are sweeping all before them on the streets). Once more domestic news cast doubts on the Greek prime minister's effort to to paint Greece as "an island of stability in a troubled region".

Yet  it hasn't been all bad news for the ruling Greek coalition since the negative publicity that Golden Dawn has garnered over the murder has clipped their wings, at least temporarily and has given the conservatives a window of opportunity to woe back disgruntled voters. New Democracy can present itself as a moderate alternative for right-leaning Greeks who are angry with austerity but appalled at the violence of Golden Dawn supporters.

At the moment that is exactly what is happening, at least according to the latest opinion polls which say that that Golden Dawn support has dropped 1.5%. However, before anyone decides to pop the champagne corks and consign them to the trash can of history the fate of the Greece's largest neo-nazi party has not yet been decided. The dire economic conditions that have helped them come to prominence have not disappeared, and indeed are set to worsen as the Troika mandated cuts in public sector spending and jobs are implemented. Such moves will just add more fuel to the fire as more and more of the middle class slide into poverty so adding to the deep well of discontent with the current political elites which the far right in Greece and the rest of Europe has been so success in exploiting.

Picture-photographer capturing aftermath of anti-fascist demo in Thessaloniki

On the other hand the sudden willingness by the two main parties to turn on Golden Dawn is the product of political calculation and not the result of a moral epiphany or a newly found revulsion over their ideas. If the fall in popularity of Golden Dawn continues they'll be more than willing to use the power of the State to make sure they are rendered impotent. On the other hand if Golden Dawn support proves to be resilient and their polls figure continue to rise once more ruling government coalition will go back to their previous policy of turning a blind eye to their violence and racism.

The same is true for the mainstream media, which is owned by a handful of oligarchs is hoping that it can weaken Golden Dawn's appeal and drive voters back to the PASOK and New Democracy, parties who can more easily be manipulated by the economic elite that dominate the country's private sector economy. But, if Golden Dawn weather the storm and the choice is between a left-wing government led by SYRIZA and a New Democracy - Golden Dawn alliance in next year's local elections will be on the cards and, all the recent attacks on nazi ideologues and extremist right wing violence will be quietly dropped.

For more on the rise of Golden Dawn in Greece, listen to this broadcast by Novara Media on Resonance FM.