tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17298986.post9188885460350476443..comments2024-03-28T09:16:53.211+02:00Comments on Teacher Dude's Grill and BBQ: Lies, damned lies and Greek opinion pollsteacher dudehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17202858180246680798noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17298986.post-30190389984837286212012-05-30T02:38:34.846+03:002012-05-30T02:38:34.846+03:00what would they gain from under estimation o sirza...what would they gain from under estimation o sirza rate? e.g. it may lead voters who didn't consider sirza, to vote for her, in order to keep an healthy opposition. under valuation is a well known pool tactics. my assumption is that the pooling models are not up for the tectonic class movements. while they built there polling model based on income and potions, the sharp class division destroyed that. large swat of the middle class joined the working class etc. the old sampling changed therefore the marginal to major error.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17298986.post-82686108663531986402012-05-30T01:40:44.400+03:002012-05-30T01:40:44.400+03:00I don't know what will happen on 17 June. But ...I don't know what will happen on 17 June. But I know that public opinion polls are generally skewed, both at European level (see Eurobarometers phrasing) and at national level. Regarding Greece, it is a common practice among the polling companies to try to form the questions in a way that the authority/ company that delegates the poll gets the results they want. In this respect, and from the safe assumption that Ned Democracy and PASOK have closer ties to the media and business world, it would surprise me to see even one poll showing SYRIZA on the lead.keepquestioninghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05829860016725281923noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17298986.post-22413959193145922642012-05-30T01:00:41.678+03:002012-05-30T01:00:41.678+03:00So presumably if all the other party shares were a...So presumably if all the other party shares were accurate and SYRIZA's 10 points low, the uplift in SYRIZA's vote must have come from undecided voters (mathematically - there's nowhere else for that 10% to appear from if other shares are constant). <br /><br />Is it plausible that people making last-minute decisions skewed heavily towards SYRIZA as a "sod the lot of you" vote to the traditional parties. Seems plausible to me. In which case, there might well be some unwinding of that vote in the second election if people feel like they've had their protest and now it's time to go back to the mainstream. We'll find out on 18 June.Anthony Znoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17298986.post-2455388966667788172012-05-29T18:01:36.886+03:002012-05-29T18:01:36.886+03:00Interesting, but none of that explains the strange...Interesting, but none of that explains the strange ability of pollsters to predict every party's vote, except SYRIZA's.teacher dudehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17202858180246680798noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17298986.post-33314922370552690362012-05-29T15:59:08.851+03:002012-05-29T15:59:08.851+03:00You know what? Shortly after the last elections, w...You know what? Shortly after the last elections, when SYRIZA appeared to be topping all polls, I predicted that, other things being equal, the trend would be reversed as we neared the next elections, and New Democracy would lead polls. I'm neither psychic, nor a pollster, nor an analyst.<br /><br />There's a simpler explanation than the complex scenarios of conspiracy theories against SYRIZA: so far, that party's been all talk and no substance. Its former platform was childishly naive, giving ready fodder to critics and sceptics. Its current platform is still reminiscent of the 'and there'll be peace on earth' kind of hopelessly wishful thinking. <br /><br />Of course, no party has control over freak events and statements (see Lagarde's recent ones on Greece vs Nigeria and Merkel's earlier remarks on a Euro referendum), which can turn a tide and change a trend in unforeseen ways. But every party has control over its own platform. If SYRIZA's final version of its political programme, to be announced at the end of this week, appears to be based on realistic solutions and measures, the party will be much better equipped to win debates and votes. Remember that, 'traditional' SYRIZA voters have a reasonably high degree of leftist education: by and large, they're neither religious nor blinkered in the KKE manner. It's harder to sell empty promises to people who won't buy anything on faith, are not indoctrinated to accept unquestioningly the party line, and possibly judge those promises not exclusively on the basis of party allegiance but also of rationality. <br /><br />To expose fallacious attacks, fend off critics, and win voters, SYRIZA, of all parties, needs to fill those promises with convincing arguments. The silliness of the 'Yia Ola Ftaiei O SYRIZA' campaign and the supposed allure of Tsipras's looks are of very limited value when you're trying to win voters who are not party disciples - at least that's how I see it.<br /><br />-- AGAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-17298986.post-61395435040467746322012-05-29T15:07:23.593+03:002012-05-29T15:07:23.593+03:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.What Should I Dohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06580182138855290037noreply@blogger.com